Themis;373587 Wrote: 
> I don't think so. Your assumptions would be true if *actually* the
> coffee was different 100% of the time...
> But the test doesn't claim this. So, if the coffee prepared by the two
> machines was different 50% of the time, the conclusion is that the
> audience succeded at 100% of the samples.

You need to sit down and think this through - you're very confused
about it.  

If the coffee was better from Caffefile 50% of the time and the same
50% of the time, and the audience picked randomly when it was the same
(as they would have to since it was the same!) and always choose the
Caffefile when it was better, the results would be 50%/2 + 50% = 75%
Caffefile, and 50%/2 = 25% CafMart.

If the Caffefile was better 1% of the time, the audience would pick
Caffefile 50.5% of the time, and CafMart 49.5% of the time.  With
enough trials, even that could be distinguished from 50-50.

Does that help?


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opaqueice
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