I saw the word 'Cloud' in that one - we must be getting closer to talking about Gliding again.
On Dec 5, 2007 1:29 AM, Mike Cleaver <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > At 02:35 5/12/2007, you wrote: > > > > There is "Climate Change", there always has been "Climate Change". > > > there was an Ice Age and the earth is going through a warming cycle > > > that has been going on since the last Ice Age. (Geoff, as > > recently as 1982 scientists thought we were heading for a new ice > > age caused by global cooling!) > > > >..... and the Earth continues to warm up (by insolation)... > > > >..... until it is hit by a big meteor which throws dirt into the air > blocking > >insolation and causing cooling (as in the last ice age). This wipes out > >many species. > > Not that simple, even for a neonatologist. But there is one simple > concept nobody has raised here yet (or in the popular science > debates). That was the old paradigm. > > Left to its own devices, the earth stays in rough balance by > radiating out the energy it receives. However, (1) it takes time to > achieve equlibrium; (2) the rate of radiation is less if there is > more cloud or more greenhouse gases to trap the heat by re-reflecting > it back to earth; (3) the rate of sunlight (energy) getting in > depends on the amount of cloud reflecting it back and the amount of > particulates stopping the sunlight getting to the surface and heating > the atmosphere. > > HOWEVER, this assumes that no extra heat (energy) is released at the > surface. It is patently obvious that humans are now using energy at > such a rate as to affect the overall balance, and all energy > eventually defaults to heat - hence the earth's surface warms as the > waste product energy accumulates until it can be re-radiated to space > as long-wave radiation. Unlike other historical events, we cannot > tell yet if that effect is self-correcting. > > The only way to radiate more energy (as a very rough approximation to > a black-body radiator) is to radiate it from a hotter source - hence > the planet MUST warm up if it is to radiate the excess energy being > generated at the surface. > > If we suspect that this is an undesirable situation, we must STOP > RELEASING SO MUCH ENERGY. Ideally we will do this by being more > efficient and not wasting it, but the fact remains that in the end it > will raise the temperature ON AVERAGE. This is where Australia, as a > amall buttechnologically smart country, can help significantly BY > REDUCING WASTING ENERGY AND MAKING THE TECHNOLOGY AVAILABLE TO ALL. > > In the long term, we must also reduce the global human population if > we are to reduce the number of sources of waste. Risk managers > consider number of fatalities against frequency to decide if a risk > is unacceptable - a single cause killing 1000 people at the same time > is not tolerable more than once in about 10 years. By extrapolation, > killing 5 billion people once in 5 billion years is also intolerable > - so half the planet's population being killed by a nearby star going > supernova once in the current age of the universe is intolerable. The > only factor we have any control over (apart from rewriting what > probability we accept) is to reduce the global population! (not in > the way one loony candidate party at the recent election has > proposed, either - by a solution akin to myxo or calici virus for > rabbit control, or relying on war and famine as we did in past > generations). > > The problem goes deeper than just greenhouse gas emissions - it is > ENERGY USAGE at a rate beyond our capacity to maintain the > environment in a range where we KNOW FOR SURE that we can survive it, > and which probably takes us outside the range of geological history > caused by variations in solar output in any time-scale we can > reliably infer from the up-front evidence. > > CO2 is only a minor part of the overall equation, but it is the > political flavour of the year. > > Wombat > > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > [email protected] > To check or change subscription details, visit: > http://lists.internode.on.net/mailman/listinfo/aus-soaring >
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