Thanks Terry,

>Unfortunately however, math or not, the history is that a lot of people who 
>have attempted this option died in so doing. 

To make such a statement, you need to know the of people who have died doing 
this manoevure divided by number of times the manoevure is performed.
I am sure that we don't hear about the majority of people that have performed 
this manoevure successfully without incident.

>As for turnbacks at 200 ft?  Not if I'm around thank you!  Especially if I'm 
>on the inside of the aircraft. 

What would you do if there was no land ahead option (i.e. wooded area)? Landing 
in trees is not a low risk manoevure either.

 > The other problem with a theoretical approach to a situation like this is 
 > that it might indeed be achievable with an above average pilot, 

The paper presented placed student pilots in the simulator as well.
The point being made is that a pilot of average skill with appropriate training 
can do this manoevure safely.
Thermalling turns are done at 45 degree AOB and at lower airspeed! Hence 45 
degree AOB at 1.5 x Vs level  (in other words at safe speed near the ground), 
should be a manoevure that a solo standard pilot can acheive. Again this 
underscores practicing the manoevure at altitude and making sure that the 
student can get it right.
 
>programs himself to consider the same option if it happens to him, 
We should all have our launch failure options clear in our minds during our pre 
take-off check. 
 
> You can guess the rest.  
This is why a pilot should not be sent solo if they do not have good speed 
control, especially near the ground.     

>It's usually much easier and quicker to derig the aircraft in the next paddock 
>than to have to pick up all the pieces on the airfield.   That's still how I 
>would prefer to approach an event like this.   I'm not sure if this is 
>sufficiently rational or reasoned, but wreckage on the ground has a way of 
>re-evaluating theoretical argument - often very dramatically. 

As I have said repeatedly, if you can land ahead safely, do so.
This covers the situation where you can't.
I am sure you could make the converse argument, seeing the wreckage in 
unlandable terrain off the end of the runway would be equally as sad.

 
 

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