I think there are better examples.  Martin Luther did not foresee the
Reformation -- he died believing that the world was coming to an end, as did
many of his time.  Or look at Twain's character in "A Connecticut Yankee in
King Arthur's Court," trying to explain modern liberty.  We'll never know,
of course, but that seems to me to be a very reasonable description of the
inability of people to see the change that was coming.

When people are convinced that they understand the possible sources of order
in the world, they cannot conceive of the potential for new ones.  Luther
could not conceive of a world in which something like the Great Chain of
Being was not the primary source of order.  The corruption of the papacy
could therefore only lead to the end of the world, not the invention and
adoption of a new kind of order.

Who, just a few decades ago, could conceive of a self-organizing global
information system on the scale of today's Internet?  The lack of any formal
system to police it would have led nearly anyone to assume it would be too
chaotic to become significant.

I'm sure there were a few visionaries who could see these things coming, but
the vast majority of people tend to be convinced that there isn't much more
to be discovered in terms of the fundamental ways that things can be
organized and regulated.  We fear and resist such innovations until we
finally admit that the systems we depend upon become deeply corrupt and
undependable.  Even then, many assume that the end times have arrived, not
the coming of something new.

Nick

> -----Original Message-----
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On
> Behalf Of Erik Reuter
> Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2001 6:12 PM
> To: Brin-L
> Subject: Re: Disconnect the Dots
>
>
> On Tue, Oct 02, 2001 at 10:44:49PM -0400, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>
> > Someone who died in the American South in the 1830s could never have
> > conceived the end of slavery.
>
> Hmm, would you like to place a bet on this? If the money is enough to
> make it worth my while, I'll bet I can dig up some reference that shows
> that someone who died in the South in the 1830s DID conceive of the end
> of slavery.
>
>
> --
> "Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>       http://erikreuter.com/
>

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