At 09:30 PM 10/16/2002 -0700 d.brin wrote:
>>d.brin wrote:
>I totally agree with this.  Indeed, anyone who peers forward 100 
>years and foresees this as stable is crazy.  Pax Americana can only 
>be a transition state... like all other Paxii. 

Well actually, aren't all states "transitional" in the long term?

In the short term, however, it may be possible for some states to be stable.

>The world seems willing to make this transition slowly.  (The Eu is 
>setting precedents on how to federalize.)  

Actually, the way things are going, the EU seems to be setting the
precedent on how not to federalize.   The reports from the EU
Constitutional Convention underway right now seem to hint that the idea of
a federal Europe is *not* going to emerge from this process.   Meanwhile,
the EU is completely mistrusted by the European citizenry, and the only two
active EMU Brin-L'ers seem shocked everytime "EU" and "federalism" are used
in the same sentence.

>>There was so much goodwill towards the US after 9/11, but somehow it has
>>been squandered.
>
>It's tragic.  Just tragic.  How can we ask others to follow us in 
>some coming emergency if we piss away their esteem without even 
>listening to their complaints?
>
>Yes, Euros bitch and whine - as they did in Yugoslavia.  But they 
>WILL follow decent leadership when it is patient and strong and - 
>above all - mature.

I don't get this.   The US has been practicing shuttle diplomacy from the
very beginning on this.   Moreover, many European countries, like Spain and
Italy already support us on Iraq.   Most of the others told us that they
wanted to see UN support first.   So, we took the case to the UN Security
Council.  There, France, which has always been content to buy oil from
Hussein and sell him nuclear components is obstructing the deal.
Meanwhile, Russia has insisted that we bribe them for support using the oil
of the Iraqi people.   Sorry, but the oil of the Iraqi people is not the
US's to give away.   Yet, oddly, the fact that the price of UN support is
basically an unethical bribery has not dampened anyone's enthusiasm to
consult this completely discredited body.    And I haven't even mentioned
yet that China holds a veto power in the UN, and has spent the past 10
years selling Iraq missiles designed to shoot down the US aircraft
patrolling the no-fly-zone yet.

Thus, the US is presented with a fait acompli.   

Choice 1) Listen to our allies' demands to get UN support first, and pay
off the Chinese, the French, and the Russians - in large part with the
resources of the Iraqi people.

Choice 2) Tell our allies that the moral case against Iraq is even stronger
than the moral case against Yugoslavia, with the exception that the Iraqis
are not white Europeans and the Yugoslavians never pursued and used weapons
of mass destruction.   As such, we tell our allies that we aren't willing
to horse-trade with the Chinese who are trying to shoot down our plans,
horse-trade with the Russians who just want the loot from Iraq, and
horse-trade with the French who have never been too concerned about Iraq's
nuclear program in the first place as long as they could make a buck.   As
such, we tell our allies that we'll try for UN support, but if we have to
compromise ourselves to get it, then the moral imperative is for us to act
alone.


Personally, I am shocked that you support Choice 1 over Choice 2.

JDG
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