David Brin wrote: > >> the chance > > of two humans being genetically equal in a > > population of 100 Giga people > > would be 75% of a millionth! [namely: (1/6)^22 * > > 100e6 ]
[here I should have written (1/6)^23 not (1/6)^22 - sorry] > I agree that there's almost no chance that GK would be > exactly duplicated. > > On the other hand, with millions of descendants > re-breeding with each other, what are the odds that > the IMPORTANT salient traits that made him great > would not only re-emerge, but be reinforced and > possibly enhanced? > Because we don't know if "gengiskhanhood" is a recessive disease that requires _a lot_ of GK genes :-) > Another way to think of it. A population varies in > many traits, in each case across a distribution with a > central mean. > This might not be true for all traits. Some of them depart heavily from this distribution. > GK in effect shifted the mean > distributions of many traits TOWARD his values. > Ok. > Subsequent births should have increased the appearance > of those traits with variation around new averages... > including some individuals at the wings who were more > Genghiz than Genghiz ever was. > Not if GKism was recessive :-) > And yet, that did not happen. > Also, not true. Maybe some GK-likes were born but died of child deseases, or died in high-school by being shot by smart kids whom they bullied O:-) Alberto Monteiro _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
