>In a message dated 29/10/2006 12:13:28 GMT Standard Time,
>[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
>
<snip of disblieve in global warming>
What worries me about discussions such as these is the frequent
failure to recognise the real cause of global warming (which the
evidence I have seen persuades me definitely is happening) is not
greenhouse gas emissions. That is only the proximate cause. The base
cause is human population increase.
Just consider the following formula: A = B X C
where:
A = Total emissions
B = average emissions per person
C = number of people emitting
I believe we will fail to reduce B, as the standards of living in
poorer countries (especially China and India) are going up so fast,
and the amount emitted by a person is closely correlated with his
standard of living. All those people becoming better off are not
going to stop just because we ask them to. In that context, every
Texan could sell his Hummer and get a Prius and it would make little
difference.
So the only option is to reduce C. There are already too many of us,
but the number is currently forecast to go up somewhere between 50%
and 100% before peaking. Yet we still have countries from Germany to
Malaysia bribing women (through tax breaks etc.) to have *more* kids.
To pay for pensions!
I find this very depressing.
If you don't believe the evidence for global warming, just think of
the logic. Several billion of us suddenly started throwing increasing
amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. We've been doing it now for,
what, 150 years. Don't you think that might have an effect on the
system? And don't forget cutting down the forests and increased
desertification, which is changing the global albedo.
Oh yeah, there are other problems from population increase, too. Like
extinctions. And over-crowded and over-used services. And
territorial wars. And social conflict from migration. And .....
No more than one kid per woman globally looks like a really good idea
to me. But perhaps a bit more gently than China has pursued it ...
Adrian
Adrian Stott
07956-299966
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