> -----Original Message----- > From: Larry White [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Tuesday, December 28, 2004 7:13 PM > To: CF-Community > Subject: Re: Global Warming (Re: Epic devestation in Asia) > > Well, I'm a little more cynical. For years, every time there's an > El Nino condition these experts make predictions for weather > conditions on the west coast that are no more accurate than guesses. > As you say, "We're talking about small, but important changes to a vast > system", so now we're to believe these same people have figured > out the outcome of long term global weather conditions, based on > small changes to a much larger weather model?
Sometimes those vast changes are easier to predict that small, local changes; especially in well-understood systems. For example, consider a drop a food coloring being added to a clear bucket of water. You can easily predict the resulting concentration, dispersal rate and even, to an extent, the dispersal pattern. A guess won't help here (you might guess, for example, that all the dye will collect in the bottom left-hand corner of the bucket - you'd be wrong). However the specifics of the event - the exact shape, direction and speed of the dispersal - are almost impossible to predict accurately. You can get close, of course. You can create models that show realistically how it would happen, but the specifics are impossible to predict. Weather is very much like that. You do get close (weather reporting is vastly more accurate than guessing), but not exact. However the broader trends are clearly predictable. We're also not talking about "weather" (which is specific regional conditions) but rather climate. Climatology has its grey areas (as do all sciences) but is surprisingly advanced and is not limited to just the past few years (or centuries). Lastly the people working on global climate change research are not "the same people" that are pimping the weather on your local TV station. ;^) Jim Davis ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Special thanks to the CF Community Suite Silver Sponsor - RUWebby http://www.ruwebby.com Message: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=i:5:141115 Archives: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/threads.cfm/5 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=s:5 Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=11502.10531.5 Donations & Support: http://www.houseoffusion.com/tiny.cfm/54
