Your right about the seasonal shifts, however this year the price is much
higher than the normal season shift.

In the past 5 days the price has fluctuated nearly 30 cents around here.

A big part of our gas prices now has to do with Horse Racing, this is prime
racing season, the Kentucky Derby is May 7th and people are already starting
to gear up. Gas prices are normally cheap around here because they don't
have to go very far from the refinery. Ashland Oil which produces the Gas
for Speedway in this region is just a couple hours drive away.

I don't think the dollar has as much to do with it, the price per barrel
goes up a little, and the gas price goes up disproportionably more. Part of
it has to do with consumer purchasing habits.

-----Original Message-----
From: Jochem van Dieten [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Wednesday, April 27, 2005 6:03 PM
To: CF-Community
Subject: RE: Bush, Oil prices and Dependence on oil

Nick McClure wrote:
> But inflation hasn't been 5% sense then has it?

I don't know the exact inflation numbers (nor the exact oil prices).

But I suspect that the current price hike might not be so much the price of
oil as the weakness of the dollar. Which means the rest of world notices
less of the response which in turn means a relatively much smaller price
elasticity. So the US, with its dependence on cheap energy and its
dependence on the dollar, feels it twice.

I don't think the current high prices are there to stay. Prices will go down
again. And then they will go up again when the summer season starts. And
then down again in the autumn. And then up again in the winter. etc. That is
what happens when the production isn't bound to seass but demand is.
It will still be a few years before the prices will not go down out of
season anymore.

Jochem



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