I'm aware the unexpected can happen. But I don't go around saying the economy has failed because NY could get hit by an earthquake. We just had two devastating hurricanes that should have destroyed our teetering economy. That's not what happened.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/06/business/06cnd-econ.html Productivity Rise Is Fastest in Two Years: Compared with the third quarter of 2004, productivity in the most recent quarter grew at a rate of 3.1 percent, real hourly compensation rose 1.2 percent and unit labor costs were up 1.8 percent, much closer to the recent trend. Some economists noted that the report allays concerns about broader inflation outside of the recent spike in energy prices, which in the case of gasoline prices have already fallen back down. "What this tells us is in terms of the fundamentals the road looks fine," said Brian Bethune, an economist at Global Insight, a research firm. "It doesn't look like there are a lot of hazards on the way." Investors appeared to agree with that assessment; the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index was up 9.60 points, to 1,271.68, around midday. On 12/6/05, Gruss Gott <wrote: > > Sam wrote: > > By hissing you mean it's not going up 29% again? That's called > > leveling off. > > To put numbers to it: > > "A leading indicator for demand in the housing sector decreased in > October, a housing industry group said [today]. The National > Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index fell 3.2% to > 123.8 from September's 127.9. The level was 3.3% below October 2004, > the NAR said." > > So I don't totally disagree with you. My point is always back to risk > - if there's a terrorist strike, oil spike, inflation, or debt crisis, > then this "slowing" could turn into a hard landing. > > The trick with all of this is in the forecasting: > > 1.) You think the risk of any of this is low. > 2.) You think the risk is non-negligible and therefore should be hedged. > 3.) You think the risk is high and so you'll dis-invest. > > I'm for hedging as I think the probability of one of these is high. > As Mr. Greenspan said, the economy is a "conundrum". > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Find out how CFTicket can increase your company's customer support efficiency by 100% http://www.houseoffusion.com/banners/view.cfm?bannerid=49 Message: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=i:5:186131 Archives: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/threads.cfm/5 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=s:5 Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.5 Donations & Support: http://www.houseoffusion.com/tiny.cfm/54
