No, I said that global warming definitely exists, global cooling definitely
exists, and the historical record shows that the planet has gone through
steady cycles of warming and cooling for ages. We don't need models and
predictions to figure that out, all we have to do is look at the physical
record and we can see it.

My point is that there is no hedge against the warming and cooling cycles
that the planet has always and (one might assume) will always go through. We
can't control it, we can only deal with its impact. The only question is
when we will experience the next warming or cooling cycle. What happens if
we start dealing with greenhouse gases and then the planet becomes
unexpectedly much cooler? Nothing, that's what. There is nothing we can do
about it.

As to the issue of pollution in the atmosphere, I would love to get off of
fossil fuels, especially oil and coal, or at least move to cleaner
technologies that pump fewer pollutants into the atmosphere. There is just
one problem- how do we do it? We could go nuclear in a big way for
electricity, but the environmental lobby acts like the mental lobby when
that subject comes up. There is no other technology in existence today that
could even come close to meeting worldwide energy demand. Coal, oil, natural
gas, and nuclear power are the four big sources of energy we have. Hydro,
wind, solar, geothermal, and everything else adds up to a hill of beans
compared to the energy output of the top four.

And hey, there are plenty of opportunities for creative people to become
rich and famous out of all of this mess. Whoever finds a solution to moving
millions of people around Southern California and other areas of sprawl in a
way that is both convenient for them (or they will not use it), efficient
(or we might as well stick to the current program) and cost-effective (or no
one will pay for it) will become an instant hero across the entire
industrialized world. It hasn't happened yet because the problem is
extremely complex and, barring some totally out of the box solution that no
one has come across, would require technology that is beyond human
capability today.

I have a simple suggestion for corporate and government bosses- let your
people telecommute more. Imagine this scenario: Iran decides to block the
Strait of Hormuz, driving oil to $200/barrel and gasoline to $6/gallon, all
in an attempt to force the U.S. to back off its pressure on the Iranian
regime. Such a scenario is not out of the question. How could we respond?
The President could go on TV and direct federal employees to work at home
when and where possible. He could suggest that state governors do the same
for state governments, and that corporate bosses do the same for their
employees. It would not have to be a long-term thing- maybe just a one week
period where everyone worked at home as much as practical. That kind of
collective action could drop gasoline and electricity usage by a huge amount
and limit the impact of oil as a weapon against us. There would be all kinds
of bumps along the way, but everyone would figure out how to make it work.
As an added bonus, we would be burning fewer fossil fuels, and in theory
helping in some small way to prevent global warming.



On 8/15/07, Gruss  wrote:
>
>
> You think there is a possibility that Global Warming does exists AND
> that humans MAY be able to do something about it.
>
> If you believe that, then you have no choice but to do something.
> I've used the insurance concept to explain why this is so.  It's about
> managing risk, not managing certainties; the essence, really, of
> business.
>


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