Given that the US is only closer to 3000 miles wide (rather than about 400 as your estimate states), your original estimate is way off. Its only by sheer dumb luck (or working the equation backwards as you likely did) that you were even close to the earth's circumference.
On Fri, Jul 17, 2009 at 3:34 PM, Gruss Gott<[email protected]> wrote: > >> Sam wrote: >> Now facts don't matter as long as the conclusion is close? >> > > Let's talk about this for a minute ... > > "Directionally correct" means that the estimate is accurate enough for > a certain level of decision or when a constraining factor is time. > > This concept is very useful in business (e.g., do we make iPods?) and > science (e.g., gravity). In fact scientific theories are *assumed* > right until proven wrong. In other words, given a limited set facts > they're assumed right, but they are also assumed to be limited! > > This type of thinking is a tested skill and key part of critical thinking. > > Here's on might test it: > > Q: estimate the circumference of the Earth > > A: well it's about 2000 miles to either coast from minneapolis. and > let's assume each ocean is as wide as the US. and let's assume europe > and the orient are about as wide as the US. and that leaves the > India-type area and let's assume that's as wide as the US. Add it up: > > US + 2 x Oceans + asia + europe + india > > 4 + 8 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 24,000 miles. > > Close enough? > > Now you try a harder one: > > Estimate the number of manhole covers in new york city. > > Go! > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Want to reach the ColdFusion community with something they want? Let them know on the House of Fusion mailing lists Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:300519 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.5
