To expand when doing statistical sampling you want a representative sample
of the overall population. Very large scale surveys and the census have
indicated that there are more Democratic than Republican voters.

What you would want - equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, is a
false equivalence. That sort of sample does not reflect the population as a
whole. Any trends or averages within such a skewed sample would not
necessarily reflect similar trends or averages within the overall
population. Hunter, Schmidt, and Jackson (1982) provide a very good
example. In a Monte Carlo simulation they pulled a series of samples and
calculated the population relationship. Those samples that were at
significant variance from the population structure tended to have the
greatest variability in their estimates of the population relationships.

So the changes of a survey artificially boosting the number of Republicans
would tend to be less predictive than one structured like the overall
population. So seriously what would be more predictive, a cherry picked
sample or one that is structurally very similar to the overall population.


Hunter, J., Schmidt, F., and Jackson, G. (1982). *Meta-Analysis: Cumulating
research findings across studies.*Beverly Hills CA: Sage.


On Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 9:00 AM, Larry C. Lyons <[email protected]>wrote:

> No Jerry that is demographics. You know how the over all population is
> made up of?
>
>
> On Tue, Jun 4, 2013 at 9:49 PM, Jerry Barnes <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>>
>> "I remember Jerry and Sam proselytizing that the polls were biased to the
>> Democrats. They said that the majority of people questioned were
>> Democrats, and
>> so the polls were all skewed."
>>
>> The internals for these polls showed over and over again a larger
>> percentage of Democrats than Republicans.  That is bias.
>>
>>
>> "They mentioned that the 'correct' polls showed Romney winning."
>>
>> I don't know who "they" is.  I didn't mention any correct polls.
>>
>>
>> I'll admit I thought Romney would win.  I underestimated the willingness
>> of
>> Americans to except an real unemployment rate of 20+% and a
>> corrupt/incompetent administration.
>>
>> J
>>
>> -
>>
>> Ninety percent of politicians give the other ten percent a bad reputation.
>> - Henry Kissinger
>>
>> Politicians are people who, when they see light at the end of the tunnel,
>> go out and buy some more tunnel. - John Quinton
>>
>>
>> 

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