Kind of like shooting someone and missing, but hitting a branch above their head causing it to fall and kill them. Inaccurate but correct.
. On Thu, Jun 6, 2013 at 12:00 PM, Sam <[email protected]> wrote: > I'll type slower this time. > > The sample was biased. > > Last minute decisions by the conservative base to not show up changed the > results. > > No polls accounted for it. > > The the biased polls were correct but for the wrong reasons. So yes they > were inaccurate. Kind of like shooting someone and missing, by > > > > On Thu, Jun 6, 2013 at 8:44 AM, Scott Stroz <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> So, again, the 'left leaning' polls that correctly predicted the President >> would win were 'inaccurate', while the single poll that incorrectly >> predicted Gov. Romney would win was accurate. >> >> That makes perfect sense. >> >> >> On Thu, Jun 6, 2013 at 12:04 AM, Sam <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> > >> > I will try again. The left leaning polls over sampled dems by using the >> > high turnout of dems from 2008. That was rare and unlikely. The dems >> > actually showed up in lower numbers. However, since so few R's voted the >> > polls were right in the end. This is not due to them being correct, just >> > dumb luck that Romney would kill his base in the end. Between that and >> the >> > polls telling us Obam won, why bother voting? >> > On Jun 5, 2013 11:46 PM, "Scott Stroz" <[email protected]> wrote: >> > >> > > >> > > Let me see if I got this right: the polls that correctly predicted the >> > > President winning were 'left leaning', but the one poll that >> incorrectly >> > > predicted Gov. Romney winning was accurate? >> > > >> > > >> > > On Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 2:10 PM, Sam <[email protected]> wrote: >> > > >> > > > >> > > > But, the polls had 11+ D and more independents than normal. This >> was to >> > > > mimic the high D turnout in 2008 which wasn't likely. However, the >> > > > extremely low R turnout gave them the correct numbers after all. >> > > > >> > > > I believe that's because Romney told voters he was the same as >> Obama in >> > > the >> > > > last debate. >> > > > >> > > > . >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > On Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 12:57 PM, Judah McAuley < >> [email protected]> >> > > > wrote: >> > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > CNN exit polls from 2012: >> > > > > http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president >> > > > > >> > > > > Voting break down by party: >> > > > > >> > > > > Democrats: 38% >> > > > > Republicans: 32% >> > > > > Independents: 29% >> > > > > >> > > > > So, yes, a 6% advantage in D vs R voting. >> > > > > >> > > > > And then Registered Voters via Pew: >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > >> > > >> > >> http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/23/a-closer-look-at-the-parties-in-2012/ >> > > > > >> > > > > D: 35% >> > > > > R: 28% >> > > > > I: 33% >> > > > > >> > > > > If you push Independents to get which way they would lean in >> voting >> > (D >> > > or >> > > > > R): >> > > > > >> > > > > D: 48% >> > > > > R: 43% >> > > > > >> > > > > So, a pretty consistent 5 to 7 percent margin no matter how you >> slice >> > > it. >> > > > > Hence why the (good) polls included more Democrat and >> > Democrat-leaning >> > > > > responses in their sample in order to match demographics. >> > > > > >> > > > > Cheers, >> > > > > Judah >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > On Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 6:14 AM, GMoney <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> > > > > >> > > > > > >> > > > > > On Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 8:09 AM, Larry C. Lyons < >> > > [email protected] >> > > > > > >wrote: >> > > > > > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > > Very large scale surveys and the census have >> > > > > > > indicated that there are more Democratic than Republican >> voters. >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > >> > > > > > I was a little bit surprised to hear that. Larry, are you >> talking >> > > about >> > > > > > REGISTERED voters, or people who actually cast votes? >> > > > > > >> > > > > > >> > > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > >> > > >> > >> > >> >> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Order the Adobe Coldfusion Anthology now! http://www.amazon.com/Adobe-Coldfusion-Anthology/dp/1430272155/?tag=houseoffusion Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:364269 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/unsubscribe.cfm
