Let me see if I got this right: the polls that correctly predicted the President winning were 'left leaning', but the one poll that incorrectly predicted Gov. Romney winning was accurate?
On Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 2:10 PM, Sam <[email protected]> wrote: > > But, the polls had 11+ D and more independents than normal. This was to > mimic the high D turnout in 2008 which wasn't likely. However, the > extremely low R turnout gave them the correct numbers after all. > > I believe that's because Romney told voters he was the same as Obama in the > last debate. > > . > > > On Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 12:57 PM, Judah McAuley <[email protected]> > wrote: > > > > > CNN exit polls from 2012: > > http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president > > > > Voting break down by party: > > > > Democrats: 38% > > Republicans: 32% > > Independents: 29% > > > > So, yes, a 6% advantage in D vs R voting. > > > > And then Registered Voters via Pew: > > > > > http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/23/a-closer-look-at-the-parties-in-2012/ > > > > D: 35% > > R: 28% > > I: 33% > > > > If you push Independents to get which way they would lean in voting (D or > > R): > > > > D: 48% > > R: 43% > > > > So, a pretty consistent 5 to 7 percent margin no matter how you slice it. > > Hence why the (good) polls included more Democrat and Democrat-leaning > > responses in their sample in order to match demographics. > > > > Cheers, > > Judah > > > > > > On Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 6:14 AM, GMoney <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > > On Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 8:09 AM, Larry C. Lyons <[email protected] > > > >wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > Very large scale surveys and the census have > > > > indicated that there are more Democratic than Republican voters. > > > > > > > > > > I was a little bit surprised to hear that. Larry, are you talking about > > > REGISTERED voters, or people who actually cast votes? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Order the Adobe Coldfusion Anthology now! http://www.amazon.com/Adobe-Coldfusion-Anthology/dp/1430272155/?tag=houseoffusion Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:364251 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/unsubscribe.cfm
