So, again, the 'left leaning' polls that correctly predicted the President would win were 'inaccurate', while the single poll that incorrectly predicted Gov. Romney would win was accurate.
That makes perfect sense. On Thu, Jun 6, 2013 at 12:04 AM, Sam <[email protected]> wrote: > > I will try again. The left leaning polls over sampled dems by using the > high turnout of dems from 2008. That was rare and unlikely. The dems > actually showed up in lower numbers. However, since so few R's voted the > polls were right in the end. This is not due to them being correct, just > dumb luck that Romney would kill his base in the end. Between that and the > polls telling us Obam won, why bother voting? > On Jun 5, 2013 11:46 PM, "Scott Stroz" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > Let me see if I got this right: the polls that correctly predicted the > > President winning were 'left leaning', but the one poll that incorrectly > > predicted Gov. Romney winning was accurate? > > > > > > On Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 2:10 PM, Sam <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > > But, the polls had 11+ D and more independents than normal. This was to > > > mimic the high D turnout in 2008 which wasn't likely. However, the > > > extremely low R turnout gave them the correct numbers after all. > > > > > > I believe that's because Romney told voters he was the same as Obama in > > the > > > last debate. > > > > > > . > > > > > > > > > On Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 12:57 PM, Judah McAuley <[email protected]> > > > wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > CNN exit polls from 2012: > > > > http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president > > > > > > > > Voting break down by party: > > > > > > > > Democrats: 38% > > > > Republicans: 32% > > > > Independents: 29% > > > > > > > > So, yes, a 6% advantage in D vs R voting. > > > > > > > > And then Registered Voters via Pew: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/23/a-closer-look-at-the-parties-in-2012/ > > > > > > > > D: 35% > > > > R: 28% > > > > I: 33% > > > > > > > > If you push Independents to get which way they would lean in voting > (D > > or > > > > R): > > > > > > > > D: 48% > > > > R: 43% > > > > > > > > So, a pretty consistent 5 to 7 percent margin no matter how you slice > > it. > > > > Hence why the (good) polls included more Democrat and > Democrat-leaning > > > > responses in their sample in order to match demographics. > > > > > > > > Cheers, > > > > Judah > > > > > > > > > > > > On Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 6:14 AM, GMoney <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 8:09 AM, Larry C. Lyons < > > [email protected] > > > > > >wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Very large scale surveys and the census have > > > > > > indicated that there are more Democratic than Republican voters. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I was a little bit surprised to hear that. Larry, are you talking > > about > > > > > REGISTERED voters, or people who actually cast votes? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Order the Adobe Coldfusion Anthology now! http://www.amazon.com/Adobe-Coldfusion-Anthology/dp/1430272155/?tag=houseoffusion Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:364257 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/unsubscribe.cfm
