PS2 sales dropped in the 25% range this Christmas, Xbox sales were static
(no loss, no gain) and GameCube sales increased by up to 20%. These figures
are very understandable considering the Nintendo and the Xbox price drops.
Even with that however PS2 was still the strongest selling system (which is
exactly why you haven't seen a PS2 price drop).
That being said Xbox really doesn't have a chance of actually "catching up"
to PS2. It just doesn't. The gap is just too great: 70 million vrs 10
million.
We can expect, for the sake of argument, that the current Xbox has, say,
three more years of life. To catch up to PS2 they would have to sell twice
as many units has they've to date EVERY ONE of those three years - and
that's assume no more sales of PS2. It's also unlikely that the current
XBox will last for another three years - I fully expect XBox2 by 2006 at the
latest.
This console war is over. and there are three winners since all three
machines have been market successes. We don't have to crown a "winner".
That being said I think that Nintendo may still go the Sega route and become
a software chop - perhaps (this is my outlandish, pundit-style prediction)
even producing specialized controllers for other systems instead of
producing full-fledged consoles.
It's also likely that the releases of PS3 and XBox2 will be near
simultaneous. Even if Nintendo releases a future-gen console they tend to
follow their own schedules. Sony and Microsoft are both marketing machines
however: they'll push each other such that neither gets too big a jump on
the other. Development on PS3 and XBox2 games is already hot'n'heavy.
That war will be worth watching. but I'm pretty sure the grounds will have
changed somewhat. Graphics just aren't going to get insanely better (we're
limited more by development cost now) and the storage we have (DVD) is
already under-utilized. We're definitely going to see convergence
applications (PVR, media jukebox capability, etc) and more build-ins
(wireless ethernet, wireless controllers - it's already been confirmed that
PS3 will ship with a next generation eye toy).
I also wouldn't be surprised to see a dark horse entry in to the contest.
something like the Phantom (tho' I personally doubt that project will ever
really get off the ground).
The real deciding factor has ALWAYS been the quality of the gameplay - but
the marketing has always focused almost exclusively on the graphics. Next
time out I think we'll see more gamer/convergence oriented marketing. Both
companies have the cash and the desire to stick it out for the long haul.
Jim Davis
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From: Andrew Scott [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Monday, January 19, 2004 7:53 PM
To: CF-Community
Subject: RE: Bleak future for videogamers?
That's not what I have read, Microsoft are very happy with their sales of
the Xbox, and quoting them as saying that the sales of the Xbox has
performed better than they have expected with sales in the next 6-8 months
as being another 14million (like to see that), but if they push it as hard
overseas as the do in Australia where you buy a mobile phone on a contract
you can have either a PS2 or Xbox and this has driven the sales of the Xbox
a lot in Australia, with the mega packs selling out within days of them
hitting the stores. Working in retail I have seen this happen the last 2
xmas's where I would sell 20 Xbox units to 1 ps2 unit...
Gamecube has been out longer, and is very popular in the Asian markets as is
any Nintendo product. Sony PS2 has been out a lot longer than either of
these 2 and is loosing ground to the Xbox fast. Each region is going to
always be different, but might have to wait and see what the PS3 will have
when it is released.
Regards
Andrew Scott
Technical Consultant
NuSphere Pty Ltd
Level 2/33 Bank Street
South Melbourne, Victoria, 3205
Phone: 03 9686 0485 - Fax: 03 9699 7976
_____
From: Jim Davis [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, 20 January 2004 11:37 AM
To: CF-Community
Subject: RE: Bleak future for videogamers?
Nintendo claims that with the price drop sales of the GameCube have exceeded
those of Xbox worldwide (which seems to have leveled-off sales-wise).
This could be true since they've always been neck-and-neck.
Still this was more a price driven Christmas that most and Nintendo has
already stopped production on GameCubes (they say to sell through stock. but
that's questionable) so I think that the Xbox will push its way back up.
Still I think it's more likely that the Xbox II will have a better chance at
toppling Sony than the current hardware which I don't think has any chance
of actually taking the number one spot.
Jim Davis
_____
From: Andrew Scott [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Monday, January 19, 2004 6:53 PM
To: CF-Community
Subject: RE: Bleak future for videogamers?
Not popular, were do you get that info from.....
Nintendo Gamecube is not popular, but the Xbox is selling fast and compared
to the length of time the PS2 has been around the XBox is doing extremely
well.
Regards
Andrew Scott
Technical Consultant
NuSphere Pty Ltd
Level 2/33 Bank Street
South Melbourne, Victoria, 3205
Phone: 03 9686 0485 - Fax: 03 9699 7976
_____
From: Kwang Suh [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, 20 January 2004 2:22 AM
To: CF-Community
Subject: RE: Bleak future for videogamers?
The XBox is not a very popular console, and as such MS is grasping at straws
trying to come up with ways to entice customers.
Steam will be down for at least three days after HL2 is released, pissing
off a bunch of customers. Steam will then go under after they realize that
their bandwidth costs were much higher than they anticipated.
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