Flex succeeds because it bring the positives of Flash of a content delivery standpoint while freeing developers of the Flash IDE, which some find very intimidating.
In the next generation of Internet applications, it is going to be tough to discern between a web app and a traditional desktop application. This is the same motivation, I think, behind Microsoft's XAML, due out with Longhorn. Given the delays in Longhorn, its deep Flash development base and legions of ColdFusion developers, MM has roughly 1 year to grab market and mindshare. While I'm sure the niche, enterprise market is lucrative, I think there is enough enthusiasm among the poorer folk to have driven some impressive sales volume in this product.
It just seems like is overlooking a opportunity to build a tremendous technology advantage, catching Microsoft on its backfoot.
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