Don Dailey: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: >Hi Hideki, > >No need to stop any of the weaker games since 99% of the compute time is >consumed by the strongest half. > >Also, only the new mogo's will be scheduled to play until they catch up >- however their opponent will almost always be the stronger players. >The probability of one of them playing against an opponent in the lower >half is low.
Hmm, I don't understand what you want to say... Probably you wrote to Heikki, or else? -Hideki >- Don > > >Hideki Kato wrote: >> Heikki, >> >> The numbers of games are about 200 and their ratings' standard >> deviations (right of Elo) are 70 to 100, right now. To get 95% of >> reliability, you have to double them. Don't you think it's too early >> to conclude any? >> >> -Hideki >> >> Heikki Levanto: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: >> >>> Everyone is looking at the top end of the scalability study >>> http://cgos.boardspace.net/study/ >>> >>> But what happens in the low end? Both programs show linear progress to begin >>> with, then a corner, and more (almost?) linear development. >>> >>> Fatman's curve has a clear break at 3 doublings, when it suddenly starts to >>> improve much slower than before. This goes on until 12 doublings, after >>> which >>> we get the mysterious decline. >>> >>> Mogo's curve is pretty well linear to 4 doublings, after that there is more >>> variation (I suppose random), but the overall scope is clearly not what it >>> was below 4. >>> >>> >>> It is possible that both programs have a subtle bug that starts to disturb >>> results around this point, but I find it quite unlikely. >>> >>> The breaks happe at 1350 - 1550 ELO points. Isn't that about the level where >>> plain MC stops improving with more playouts? Would be fun to see if we >>> could >>> isolate the playout parts of those programs, and let them play pure MC. My >>> guess is that they would end up around this level. >>> >>> >>> Could it be that there are other limiting factors higher up? Perhaps Fatman >>> is hitting the next one around 12 doublings, and Mogo will follow at 14 or >>> 15... We will see that in a few days, when the new Mogos join the study and >>> start producing results. >>> >>> - Heikki >>> >> -- >> [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Kato) >> _______________________________________________ >> computer-go mailing list >> [email protected] >> http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ >> >> >_______________________________________________ >computer-go mailing list >[email protected] >http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ -- [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Kato) _______________________________________________ computer-go mailing list [email protected] http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/
