On Wed, 2006-01-18 at 09:57 -0800, Bastian, Waldo wrote:
> > The one business issue that is going to be hard to overcome
> >for the general market is the vast differences in market segment
> >sizes.
> >
> > Lets use the numbers of
> > 90% Windows
> > 5% Mac
> > 5% Linux
> >
> > Now the Mac market segment is a little different in that it
> >used to be a much higher percentage and for certain usage
> >models I would imagine that it is the 90% and MS is the smaller
> >number.
> >
> > So if you are looking to enhance the revenue for your product
> >you look at the relative sizes of the market segments for a given
> >industry if the above numbers are close then which ports do you
> >support?
> >
> > Well if you assume that you can gain the same penetration
> >in each of the different desktop environments then the numbers
> >tell you. Let's say that you feel that you can quickly capture 10%
> > of a given application segment.
>
> I think the assumption of uniform penetration opportunities should be
> challenged.
>
Sure - lets say that it is 20% for the new one. i.e. You are the first
one on Linux and there isn't anybody else there. Of course if that
is true then their probably won't be a good penetration.
So:
MSS Desktop Penetration %
90% MS Windows 10% 9%
5% Mac 10% 0.5%
5% Linux 20% 1%
======
10.5%
MSS Desktop Penetration %
90% MS Windows 11% 9.9%
5% Mac 11% 0.55%
5% Linux 00% 0%
======
10.45%
I always use the "would a venture capital guy buy this"
test.
And a "there is nobody using Linux for X" so we will
quickly be able to gain 20% of the Linux desktops as
a target market segment share isn't one that would fly with
the smarter ones. Unless it was moving people from
an established desktop and then that would involve
a corresponding drop in the established sales.
Of course once the movement starts to happen then
the ISV's will move because they see a change in
the relative % of MSS for the different desktops. But
that is an after they see a trend for a few quarters or
even years.
Tim
> If your competitors aren't present on other platforms you can achieve
> higher penetration on those platforms, assuming that you can leverage
> some sort of advantage of the platform. For Linux stability and security
> come to mind.
>
> You will also get the strategic benefit of becoming the default market
> segment leader on the platform.
>
> Another advantage will be that you can offer your windows customers the
> prospect of platform migration in the future. With statistics showing
> that more than 50% of organisations are interested in migrating away
> from MS if they had the chance, that prospect in itself must be worth
> something.
>
> Cheers,
> Waldo
--
Timothy D. Witham - Chief Technology Officer - [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Open Source Development Lab Inc - A non-profit corporation
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