I wonder about the extent to which the major social network sites realize
they are in the entertainment business. As such, their stickiness is based
on novelty, and has an inherent ceiling effect since there is only so much
time to devote to entertainment. As the novelty wears off, and there is no
answer to the "now what" question, people will start spending their time
elsewhere.

It's interesting that the sites seem to have hitched their continued novelty
to the 3rd party app bandwagon. Contrast that with another major
entertainment platform - game consoles - where the platform providers are
also major contributors of novelty (i.e. new games) to help ensure that
people stick around.

There is also another alternative which Will pointed out - get out of the
entertainment business and provide a different kind of value. There is a lot
of power locked up in social networks, it's just not being captured right
now. Facebook at least seems to realize this and thus is moving in the
platform direction, it's just a matter of whether the platform is structured
in a way that allows for value extraction.
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