A question: how do you get from a 24% chance of injury in a reentry accident to one casualty per thousand flights? I'm not challenging you; I just don't follow you.
And a comment: if the 1 in a 1000 figure is accurate, Shuttle is 33 times too hazardous to fly under FAA rules. No surprise there; it can't land in the U.S. under FAA rules, either.
He simply multiplied the 24% by NASA's approximated loss estimate of 1 in ~250 (I don't remember the exact number) flights. However, they've lost 2 in 107 flights, so their estimates are suspect.
Tony Fredericks "Mind that bus!" Amateur Rocket Scientist "What Bus?" E.R.P.S. Member SPLAT!! - Arnold Rimmer
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