Hi Chris, 'Fraid I couldn't disagree with you more - and on all 4 points.
Firstly, Mr M has made it clear that he likes the 'one size fits all' concept for sharing the underpinnings of his vehicles (the 'Tesla Vehicle Platform') - for S and X at least. Granted, something smaller will have to be designed for the next lower cost model but again this might be shared amongst other future models. So 2 different sizes for the swap robot to contend with - hardly a deal breaker. On the battery upgrade front, again the ludicrously simple 'box' design for the battery pack makes it very simple to upgrade battery tech - I see no reason why the 18650 cell format will not continue to advance, as it has already done, increasing its capacity 3-fold, at least, since its commercial inception. Don't forget, it isn't just Tesla that use these cells - which is of course precisely why Mr M chose to use them in the first place. I really don't see why the 'inventory' as you put it needs to be particularly extreme - I cant see why initial Tesla Stations will need any more than one swap robot, for example. Lastly, it is not just Jared (who-or-whatever s/he is) who thinks they need long range capability in their EV, practically EVERYone does - but yes, at least I agree they are wrong! MW On 22 Jun 2013, at 15:26, Chris Tromley wrote: > It's an impressive stunt, but you don't have to think it through too much > to see the likely real-world problems. Here are some obvious ones: > > 1. Will ALL Teslas use the same mechanical layout for the battery pack? > Clearly not, meaning each new model must consider the existing > infrastructure for battery swaps. Development engineers don't need more > restrictions. > > 2. Will this allow seamless upgrades to new battery technology? > Interesting thought, but think it through and you see a potential rat's > nest of software and hardware incompatibilities. > > 3. I'm guessing if you run some numbers you might be stunned at the amount > of inventory needed at each Tesla station and how it increases > exponentially with different models and pack capacities. > > This ain't as easy as it seems. I think the key to this demo is captured > in Musk's words from the video: > > "...what this is about, it's convincing the people who are skeptics. There > are some people ... they take a lot of convincing." > > This is not so much about a practical solution. It's about winning hearts > and minds. When you think about it, that's Musk's singular key to success. > All of us here are deep in the tech, but Musk knows he has to win people > over whether the means make any sense or not. Get them on your side first > - making sense will come later. Does anyone here really believe 265 miles > of range is really necessary? Of course not. But Jared the high-roller > techie hipster does, so you give Jared what he wants. By doing so you put > EVs on the map in a very big way. > > I for one am willing to put up with what I see as silliness if it gets more > people thinking positively about EVs. Making sense will come. > > Chris > > > On Sat, Jun 22, 2013 at 4:50 AM, Martin WINLOW <[email protected]> wrote: > >> When I watched the video the thought occurred to me that unlike BeP, to >> provide the technology to do the swapping, all Tesla has to do is reproduce >> the already well-proven battery insertion robot technology used in their >> factory as - apparently - there is no whizzo clamping system etc - it just >> undoes the bolts used to bolt the battery into place in the factory. >> >> That alone (if true) will save a serious amount of money. >> >> My issue is this:- Would you, as the careful owner of a relatively low >> miles 85kW Model S be entirely happy to swap your cherished and pampered >> battery for Lord-knows-what at a 'Tesla Station'? >> >> I, too, hope Mr Musk has something clever in mind to make this idea work. >> I do like the 'fast or free' idea, though. On its own that might just >> swing it. >> >> MW >> >> >> On 21 Jun 2013, at 19:49, Chris Tromley wrote: >> >>> I have tremendous respect for Tesla, but I think they've taken a >> seriously >>> wrong turn here. Swapping has been debated ad nauseum. It's an enticing >>> concept, but there are far too many ways it can fail in the real world. >>> Elon better have something very clever up his sleeve or this will likely >>> turn into a very visible failure. Hopefully it just disappears quietly. >>> >>> Chris >>> On Jun 21, 2013 8:17 AM, "Cor van de Water" <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> The Tesla video shows them swapping a Tesla pack on-stage in 90 secs >>>> flat >>>> from driving onto the swapping unit until driving off. >>>> >>>> While they swap the packs in 2 Teslas, they have a parallel video >>>> of someone filling his gas tank as fast as he could - which takes approx >>>> 4 minutes (at the fastest station they could find nearby), so they >>>> actually have to wait for him to complete the fillup after the second >>>> Tesla S has left the swapping station... >>>> >>>> The comment: now you can choose between free and fast. >>>> (The fast-charging of Tesla is free, the fast-swapping apparently costs >>>> about the same as a fillup - they show the end result of the fillup at >>>> $99 so that may be an indication of the price, I did not catch how much >>>> a swap actually is going to cost. >>>> >>>> http://www.teslamotors.com/batteryswap >>>> >>>> >>>> Cor van de Water >>> >> >> -------------- next part -------------- >> An HTML attachment was scrubbed... >> URL: < >> http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20130622/07a99004/attachment.htm >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub >> http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org >> For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA ( >> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) >> >> > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: > <http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20130622/7f05f6e1/attachment.htm> > _______________________________________________ > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub > http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org > For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA > (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) > _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
