On Sat, Jun 22, 2013 at 11:41 AM, Marcus Reddish
<[email protected]>wrote:

> 1. Yes, I believe they ARE using the same pack layout on future vehicles.
>  That is the whole concept to gain from economy of scale.
>

Have you seen the Model X?  That's not a new model, it's a variation on a
theme.  When I first saw it I was disappointed that it was so incredibly
similar - nothing but a tall model S.  Uniform packs might be a big reason
why.  What are they going to do when they want to make something smaller?
 This is what I'm talking about in reference to restrictions on
development.  No smart leading-edge company boxes itself in.

2. The cars computers can be 'updated' remotely to sense new battery tech
> or old, if there is a significant difference.
>

With a new battery technology, don't you think there might be some hardware
differences as well?   Charger, BMS I/O, cooling/heating, support
structure, etc.  New technology is rarely plug-n-play.   Because new
technology is new, you can't really plan for it.

Trust me, I've spent a whole career in product development sorting out
these subtle-but-crucial incompatibilities.  You can eventually end up with
a design that makes no sense at all unless you know the history.  If you
could start out with a clean sheet it would be MUCH
better/cheaper/friendlier/etc.  But you can't, because you're tied to the
greater context, in this case the infrastructure, in which the product
operates.  This can make you very vulnerable to competitors.

And speaking of which, I'm not at all interested in any product that forces
me to return to one source for recurring requirements.  What good is a swap
station if it's more than five miles out of my way?  I don't have that kind
of time.  How many of these stations can they afford to build, if they can
only be used by Teslas?

3. The HUGE inventory is EXACTLY the point.  That's where all the SOLAR
> power is stored.  In a centillion tiny batteries.
>

Hadn't heard about that part of the plan.  If there's an income stream from
the utilities, maybe this has a better chance of being profitable.

Ultimately, profits are key.  If Tesla is going to try to make this work
long term, it's going to depend on market expectations as much as workable
solutions.  After proving all the naysayers wrong and building an
award-winning new vehicle that is a thumb in the eye of Detroit and the
other major players on the world stage, doing anything that limits their
flexibility would be a very big mistake.  If they can do swapping and
remain agile as a company I'm all for it.  I see some big challenges, but
maybe they're ahead of the game.  I hope so.

Chris
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