On 02/08/2014 04:35 AM, Martin WINLOW wrote:
> Hi David,
> 
> Yes, it is a nice looking car... modern but not so whacky that its
> design would put people off.  I have had a close look at one in a
> dealer and even got them to work out an HP deal but the battery lease
> thing is a real deal breaker for me.  I am not (and never have been)
> one to buy a new car, keep it for a few years and then trade it in
> for a new one.  I guess this paradigm must suit lots of other people
> though as it appears it is this has made the world's motor industry
> the colossus that it is.

I just picked up a Smart ED (Electric Drive) and elected to use their
"Battery Assurance" plan. Basically, I'm renting the battery for $80/mo.
I'm not particularly paranoid about batteries but this really does
remove all the worry. Any problems for the next 10 years and they fix or
replace the battery. The only odd thing is having to send 2 checks every
month. One for the car and one for the battery.

As for holding cars for a long time...after a series of amazingly
inexpensive and tragically unreliable used cars I finally got a real job
and bought my first new car. I kept it for 12 years, the next one for 10
and then 10 for the next.

But I find a different trend has developed. In 2006 I bought a Mercury
Mariner (aka Ford Escape) hybrid. It was their first crack at a hybrid
and it was barely one. I think they were nervous about creating a
different driver experience. It got okay gas mileage but it was hard
getting it in EV mode. Its biggest advantage was shutting off the engine
at stop lights. Four years go by and Ford has made substantial
improvements to the 'hybridness' of the Escape. AND Navtek has stopped
releasing map updates to the nav system in the one we have. AND the
Mariner really held its value. So we traded it in on a 2010 Ford Escape
hybrid.

It was a much better hybrid. It fought hard to go electric and stay
electric at any speed under 48mph. I got an extra hundred miles out of
every tank of gas. The Nav system was much improved too and the vehicle
was more comfortable. Even so, I still cringed every time gas poked over
$4/gal.

Three years go by and now I'm also strongly bit by the EV bug. I have
9.3kw of solar panels on the roof. I go to EAA meetings and get rides in
EVs. I bought a Miata to convert to an EV (hasn't happened yet). Ford
finally releases a long-promised plug-in hybrid, the C-Max Energi. They
also have their Fusion EV but range anxiety and price keeps it off my
list. So last March I traded the Escape for an Energi.

The car is great. 25 miles of electric range (my daily commute is 17) at
up to 80mph. No range anxiety. 41mpg when the gas engine finally does
come on. But I've also noticed my trend. While I generally want to keep
cars for a long time, technology is changing so fast--in ways I
like--that I can see that 3 year ownership is where I am right now. So
for the first time in my life I leased a car. 39 months. It was more
than $100/mo less than if I'd bought it so cash flow is improved. And
maybe the 2016 Energi will go 50 miles on a charge and massage my back
when I drive. (In a step backwards, the nav system sucks.)

Winter is here and the EV range on the Energi is now about 11 miles
instead of 25. And the car insists on running the gas engine to warm
things up. All understandable but I'm burning gas every day and it
annoys me. I went to a meeting of the Westport Electric Car Club held at
the local Smart dealer. I found out they're practically giving away the
Smarts. A 3 year lease was $17/mo. Plus $80 for the battery and a couple
for tax worked out to $99/mo. Winter range is 45 miles, summer should be
around 70. Plenty for me and no gas no matter how cold it is. And it's a
fun little car to drive. So now I've leased my second car. It's also the
only time in my life I've had two new cars in my driveway.

So like computers and phones going obsolete every couple of years I see
the same thing happening with modern cars. The Energi has been reliable
to drive but it has gone back to the dealer twice for software upgrades
(and I've done a couple myself). What happens when the manufacturer
stops supporting the code? And I think things are evolving fast enough
in the electric car world that I can't see buying an EV now and hoping
to keep it for 10 or more years. Although maybe I would if I was renting
the battery, like on the Smart.

--Rick
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