On 25 Nov 2014 at 22:02, Paul Dove via EV wrote:
> Very rare? Like film and mechanical watches. No it's common and happens all
> the time ...
Lee said :
> To make it happen, the new tech has to be dramatically and obviously
> superior in virtually all ways.
... and you've named two excellent examples of new technologies that were
dramatically and obviously superior to the old technology they replaced.
The same could be said of the digital compact disc replacing the analog LP
record.
A solid US counterexample is IBOC digital ("HD") radio. It received its FCC
approval in 2002, so why don't you have a digital radio in every room of
your house yet? Why aren't the shelves and sale flyers at Target and Best
Buy full of HD radios?
It didn't help that in setting their receiver license fee, Ibiquity (to whom
the FCC effectively gave a US IBOC monopoly) drastically overestimated the
perceived incremental value that their technology added over conventional
analog radio. But the main problem is that radio buyers just don't notice
or care about the allegedly improved sound. Given the way they mostly
listen to radio - in the background - analog FM is good enough, and IBOC is
a solution to a nonexistent problem.
When you think about it, the ICEV and its infrastructure are hideously
complex. However, ICEVs have evolved to the point where, against all odds,
they work remarkably well.
Sad to say, with petroleum fuels widely available and relatively cheap, EVs
today are more like digital radio than digital recording or digital
photography. Their benefits over ICEVs are mostly subtle and long-range.
The average driver cares more about where the cupholders are than about what
fuel goes into the car or what emissions come out of it. For Joe or Jane
Average, ICEVs are good enough, and EVs are a solution to a (currently)
nonexistent problem.
David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator
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