On 25 Mar 2015 at 12:11, Michael Ross via EV wrote: > If I had to buy a $5500 pack and some unknown labor every 5 years that > would really suck. I expect cars to last 10+ years.
You and everyone else. This is much of what killed the few lead-battery EVs offered in the 1980s and 1990s. Owners typically drove the cars for 3-4 years (if they were lucky and if they did the maintenance right), and then had to cough up $1000-2000 for a new battery. They expected to spend that kind of money on rebuilding an ICEV's transmission after 7 or 8 years, so when it came round again in another 3-4 years, the car went into the local Auto Trader magazine (remember those?) as "needs batteries," the asking price a fraction of what the owner paid new. (Great deals for folks like us!) Never mind that the owner had paid nothing for oil changes and tune-ups all that time (in those days ICEVs needed more of that stuff). All he saw was that big battery bill, and he "expect[ed] cars to last 10+ years." In the meantime ICEVs haven't stood still. They are now a much harder target to hit when competing on reliability, quiet, comfort, and smoothness - maybe even on social values, though Western buyers are not known for caring much about the social impact of their buying choices. I sometimes compare ICEVs to the highly evolved phono cartridges available in the 1970s and 1980s. (For you young people, I'm talking about playing vinyl records.) Just when it seemed they had reached their peak, PCM digital reproduction came along and offered some clear advantages. LPs, turntables, and phono cartridges are still manufactured today, but in tiny quantities. If that were a good analogy, when the Leaf (or EV1, or RAV4-EV, or whatever) came out it should have quickly buried ICEVs, with every manufacturer rushing to tool up to make EVs. But that didn't happen. Why not? Though there are some personal pluses to EVs, and we love them - let's face it, they're just not comparable to the CD's advantage over LPs. The biggest ones accrue to society as a whole, and as I said, around here that isn't on Joe and Jane Average's smartphone screen. For Joe or Jane to consider an EV, society has PAY him or her in the form of government subsidies, and that's subject to political whim. I'm surprised we still have them in the US, and don't expect them to last another 5 years. They might last longer in the EU, if they manage to stabilize their economy. But the EU has other hurdles for EVs to deal with. So maybe my analogy above is wrong. EVs vs ICEVs is more like satellite or digital radio vs traditional FM broadcast: they're better, all right, but they solve a problem that most users / buyers just don't care that much about. I'm a big EV fan, but I'm also realistic about how much of the market they're going to own in the short term. Until the gas pumps finally run dry, I'm afraid EVs will remain a (small) minority. Better get yours while you can. David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA EVDL Administrator = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = EVDL Information: http://www.evdl.org/help/ = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Note: mail sent to "evpost" and "etpost" addresses will not reach me. To send a private message, please obtain my email address from the webpage http://www.evdl.org/help/ . = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
