Anecdotal evidence: I have charged a grand total of 1 time at the public
charging station across the street, due to not planning ahead. Every other
time, I charge at home or work.
So, for me the balance lies at over 99% private charging.
I suspect others have similar experience and this skews the picture quite a
bit away from public charging.
Apartment dwellers either need to rely on workplace charging or get a
(shared) charger installed, but are likely to use more public charging
otherwise. So, with more people buying EVs, including those without garage
or private driveway, the need for public charging likely increases more
than linear.
Cor.

On Sun, May 5, 2019, 10:36 AM Robert Bruninga via EV <ev@lists.evdl.org>
wrote:

> Good counter arguments!  Thanks
> Bob
>
> On Sun, May 5, 2019 at 12:50 PM Lee Hart via EV <ev@lists.evdl.org> wrote:
>
> > Robert Bruninga via EV wrote:
> > >> I'm not sure EV charging stations will ever be as prolific as gas
> > > stations are now.
> > >
> > > The 300 million cars are served by about 120,000 gas stations in the
> > USA...
> > > What about when we get to 300M EVs?  Lets assume 80% charge at home
> > > leaving 60M needing public charging... 250,000 high speed chargers
> > needed.
> >
> > Which is just two per gas station. Certainly possible.
> >
> > > That leaves the 9 million needing 3 hours a day at L2 for 36 million L2
> > > charging hours a day.  Divided by 24 gives about 1,500,000 public L2
> > > chargers.
> >
> > Roughly 12 times the number of gas stations. But L2 chargers can be put
> > almost anywhere; any business can have one. So it is quite conceivable
> > to have that many.
> >
> > > So I say as I have always said... "anyone who buys an EV with the idea
> of
> > > dependence on public charging will be VERY disappointed!
> >
> > Right now, yes! To my mind, it is GOOD not to depend on public charging.
> > Charge at home!
> >
> > But as an engineer, I see no technological challenges with a system
> > where home charging is somehow prevented, so that paid public charging
> > is the only option. The oil companies could convert their gas stations
> > to "filling stations" with EV fast chargers. The power companies could
> > get into the public charging business, and license smaller L2 chargers
> > the same way banks set up ATMs in every mall and big-box store. There
> > are easily 12 times more places where such EVSE's could be put than just
> > at gas stations. Any public place you park your car could have one.
> >
> > Cities, states, stores, the oil companies, power companies, and whoever
> > makes these EVSE's would all see it as a new source of profits. All of
> > them would lobby for such a solution.
> >
> > They get complete control over the price and delivery. They can tax the
> > bejesus out of the electricity, just like fuel taxes. They can limit or
> > shut down the chargers in case of brownouts, or even "borrow" power from
> > your EV battery packs when needed.
> >
> > THAT's my worry.
> >
> > --
> > Fools ignore complexity. Pragmatists suffer it. The wise avoid it.
> > Geniuses remove it. -- Alan Perlis, "Epigrams on Programming"
> > --
> > Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
> > _______________________________________________
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> > Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (
> > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
> >
> >
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