2009/2/9 Jack Mallah <jackmal...@yahoo.com>:
> You might die between 4 and 30, but the chance is fairly small, let's say 10%
> for the sake of argument. So, if we just consider these two ages, the
> effective probability of being 30 would be a little less than that of being 4
> - not enough less to draw any conclusions from.
> The period of adulthood is longer than that of childhood so actually you are
> more likely to be an adult. How likely? Just look at a cross section of the
> population. Some children, more adults, basically no super-old folks.
Suppose I did something extremely risky as a child and survived. The
multiverse is as a result much more densely filled with my childhood
OM's. Now, it is true that a randomly sampled OM out of all the
possible OM's available to me is more likely to be one of these
childhood OM's, but random sampling of this sort is not how life
works. When I anticipate my future, the only options I need consider
are those OM's which have my present OM in their immediate subjective
past. I can't jump backwards into my childhood and I can't stand still
at the present moment if my present OM's measure is increased
enormously, any more than can I suddenly find myself a different
person entirely because their measure is a lot greater than mine.
Given that I am who I am now, there are constraints as to what
candidate OM's are allowed in the lucky dip for my next conscious
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