Dear Russell, I have my doubts about "causality" as a *complete* term: our 'systems', cf: ecosystem etc. include the up-to-date inventory of knowables as in our existing "MODEL" of the world - which grows over the millennia stepwise. (The 'cause' of the lightning is no more the "ire" of Zeus).
Whatever we include as 'causing' a change (whatever) is the portion of its entailments selectable from said inventory (of yesterday). This causes the uncertainty and occasional mishaps in our "world". Besides: our terms are proportionate, content and qualia (may be) incomplete restricted to said inventory, so the partial entailment we observe may seem satisfactory to the actual 'model-item' we carry. (((How's THAT with AL?))) ------------------ We had a little exchange on "random" earlier when you resorted to the term (as I recall): as *provisonal (or conditional?) random* that may occur *under the given conditions only*. ((I just wrote to Hal R. that a "random walk" in evolution could lead *us, humans* (back???) - maybe - to *DE*-velop into trilobites. Why not?)) John Mikes On Thu, Nov 1, 2012 at 5:59 PM, Russell Standish <[email protected]>wrote: > The distinction between correlation and causality occasionally comes > up in this discussion group, so I thought this paper might be of > interest. > > Disclaimer - I haven't read it, but it is published in Science, and > one of the authors (Robert May) I have the utmost respect for. > > Let me know if you can't find a non paywalled version. I will probably > be able to get it from my institution's e-library. > > > ----- Forwarded message from Complexity Digest Administration < > [email protected]> ----- > > > > Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems > > Identifying causal networks is important for effective policy and > management recommendations on climate, epidemiology, financial regulation, > and much else. We introduce a method, based on nonlinear state space > reconstruction, that can distinguish causality from correlation. It extends > to nonseparable weakly connected dynamic systems (cases not covered by the > current Granger causality paradigm). The approach is illustrated both by > simple models (where, in contrast to the real world, we know the underlying > equations/relations and so can check the validity of our method) and by > application to real ecological systems, including the controversial > sardine-anchovy-temperature problem. > > > Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems > George Sugihara, Robert May, Hao Ye, Chih-hao Hsieh, Ethan Deyle, Michael > Fogarty, Stephan Munch > > Science 26 October 2012: > Vol. 338 no. 6106 pp. 496-500 > > http://unam.us4.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=0eb0ac9b4e8565f2967a8304b&id=9e44b3450a&e=d38efa683e > > See it on Scoop.it ( > http://www.scoop.it/t/papers/p/3161484398/detecting-causality-in-complex-ecosystems) > , via Papers (http://www.scoop.it/t/papers) > > > > -- > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Prof Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) > Principal, High Performance Coders > Visiting Professor of Mathematics [email protected] > University of New South Wales http://www.hpcoders.com.au > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]. > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list?hl=en. > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list?hl=en.
