On Mon, Mar 10, 2014 at 3:58 PM, Jesse Mazer <laserma...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > >> because before you initiate a policy that will impoverish the world >> for many generations and kill lots and lots and lots of people >> > > > What "policies" are you talking about that would have these supposed > effects? > Shut down all nuclear reactors immediately. Stop using coal. Stop all dam construction and dismantle the ones already built. Stop all oil and gas fracking. Stop using geothermal energy. Drastically reduce oil production and place a huge tax on what little that is produced. Don't Build wind farms in places where they look ugly, reduce wind currents, kill birds or cause noise. Don't use insecticides. Don't use Genetically Modified Organisms. Don't use herbicides. Do exactly what the European Greens say. > The EU has been on track in their goals of emissions reductions, already > cutting them by 18% from 1990 levels, > And Germany alone spent 110 billion dollars to accomplish that, about $660 for every ton of CO2 they're cutting. And the net outcome of that staggering amount of money and effort is that by the end of this century global warming will be delayed by about 37 hours. Global warming is real and if it turns out to be a bad thing then we're going to have to fix it, but we need to do it in a smart way. > When there is widespread expert consensus on how "sure" we should be > about a scientific matter, and I have no expertise in the matter myself, I > tend to assume as a default that the scientific experts likely have good > grounds for believing what they do. Of course it's possible on occasion > that expert consensus can turn out to be badly wrong but [...] > There is consensus in the scientific community that things are slightly warmer now than they were a century ago, but there is most certainly NOT a consensus about how much hotter it will be a century from now, much less what to do about it or even if it's a bad thing. Just yesterday there was an amusing story on National Public Radio (a place not known for being unfriendly to environmentalists) about the zany confusion and utter lack of consensus of how much the sea will rise in a hundred years, you can listen to it here: http://hereandnow.wbur.org/2014/03/10/florida-sea-level > > >> So CO2 at 3000 parts per million will lead to worldwide glaciation but >> CO2 at 380 parts per million will lead to catastrophic warming. Huh? >> > > > You're forgetting that the radiation from the Sun has changed > significantly between then and now, > The sun was a few percent weaker then, but that didn't stop the Earth from being 18 degrees hotter during the Carboniferous than now, and you're forgetting that life just loved it when things got that warm. > What difference would 4-5% less incoming solar energy make? > I could be wrong but I would guess about 4 or 5 percent. > Global climate models, calibrated to today's conditions predict that > [blah blah] > Well that sounds nice and glib but exactly how in the world do you "calibrate" something as astoundingly cpmplex as the global weather machine? I suspect they worked backward and figured out the outcome they wanted and then, surprise surprise, they did. Are really you so confident they did it correctly that you are quite literally willing to stake your life on it? You'd better be because that's what you're asking us to do. >> For example, The sea has risen about 6 inches during the last century, >> and it has risen about 6 inches a century for the last 6 thousand years. >> > > > I don't think that claim reflects the mainstream view so it's > probably something you've gotten from a fringe or outdated source, > See Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_sea_level_rise "From 1950 to 2009, measurements show an average annual rise in sea level of 1.7 ± 0.3 mm per year" That's 6.7 inches a century. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
