On 9/15/2019 6:41 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote:
If in H you are multiplied in W and M, but directly killed in M, you survive in W with
probability one. That is why we add p or <>t to []p to transform the logic of belief
([]p) into a probability logic ([]p & <>t).
Suppose you live a few seconds in M. Do you then survive in W with probability
0.5?
Assuming you do die in M, even after some years, the probability in H to be
feeling the one in W will be one, assuming you never dies in W. But this
assumes mortality, and some transitivity of the probability rules, so the
question is very complex. The probability in H to be W or M, for a short time,
is one half, but the probability to be in the place where you stay for a long
time, will be close to one in a sort of retrospective way.
All this comes from a simple fact: absolute-death is not a first person
experience. There is no entry in the first person diary which mention “I died
today”.
The difficulty is that the first person renormalise the probabilities all the
time, and that is why making them transitive leads to paradoxes.
I think what makes them paradoxical is that you jump around between
subjective probabilities of different persons beliefs.
Let me try to illustrate. You are in H, just before the WM-duplication. You are
told in advance that in W you will get a cup of tea, and then be killed. In W
you get a cup of coffee, and not killed.
Is that last W supposed to be "M"?
What is the probability (in H) that you will get a cup of tea. It is 1/2. But
what is the probability, in H, that you will have a long lasting memory of
having drink a cup of coffee after that experiments: It is 1. In fact, in
Moscow, you could (although it is psychologically very difficult) still bet
that “you” will have a memory of having doing coffee, and just an amnesia of M
and its cup of tea. This also gives some sense that we survive more in our kids
and in the value we transmit to them, than in bodies and personal first person
happening.
Now, that renormalisation process is not easy, a bit like in QFT, we get
infinities which are hard to subtract.
Brent
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