On Sat, Aug 1, 2020 at 10:49 AM Jason Resch <[email protected]> wrote:

> On Fri, Jul 31, 2020 at 7:37 PM PGC <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> On Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 2:26:40 AM UTC+2, Jason wrote:
>>>
>>> On Fri, Jul 31, 2020 at 7:20 PM PGC <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 1:12:49 AM UTC+2, Jason wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> There have been 65 studies on HCQ. Of all the tests that looked at
>>>>> giving it early in the disease, or prophylactically, they showed HCQ was
>>>>> beneficial. This site summarizes them all: https://c19study.com/
>>>>>
>>>>> The only studies that have shown HCQ to be ineffective are those where
>>>>> it is given late in the disease progression (when the disease shifts from
>>>>> the viral replication phase to an immune system dysregulation phase
>>>>> <https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf>
>>>>> (see page 2)). Even then, 61% of studies have shown some effectiveness 
>>>>> even
>>>>> when it is given late.
>>>>>
>>>>> Given the well-established safety
>>>>> <https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/resources/pdf/fsp/drugs/Hydroxychloroquine.pdf>
>>>>> record of HCQ, this is the dilemma we face:
>>>>>
>>>>> HCQ works HCQ doesn't work
>>>>> HCQ widely dispensed 10,000s of thousands of lives saved $20 wasted
>>>>> per patient
>>>>> HCQ use restricted 10,000s of thousands of needless deaths $0 wasted
>>>>> per patient
>>>>>
>>>>> Even in the face of impartial information on its effectiveness, the
>>>>> decision is clear.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/04-07-2020-who-discontinues-hydroxychloroquine-and-lopinavir-ritonavir-treatment-arms-for-covid-19
>>>>
>>>> Why not find out from the WHO or the steering committee itself? Just be
>>>> prepared to wait as I believe they are somewhat busy.
>>>>
>>>> But contact them
>>>>
>>>
>>> Find out what from the WHO?
>>>
>>
>> Why they discontinued the treatment arm and why you think they should
>> re-establish it (again btw) to save thousands of lives, with your table and
>> the website. PGC
>>
>>>
>>
> It's purely a decision theory problem. They WHO is not infallible (and
> have demonstrated that recently), the science on HCQs effectiveness is
> mixed, the science on its safety is clear.
>
> Given that there is a clearly optimal decision with a higher expected
> value.
>


Your table above presents a false dichotomy. There is no evidence that use
of HCQ is effective as a cure for COVID-19. It was only ever suggested that
it might act prophylactically, or in relief of some early stage symptoms.
Decision theory is only useful if you don't misrepresent the facts....

Bruce

>
> The very link you provided says they only cancelled only the late stage
> testing. They are continuing early and prophylactic use tests.
>
> "This decision applies only to the conduct of the Solidarity trial in
> hospitalized patients and does not affect the possible evaluation in other
> studies of hydroxychloroquine or lopinavir/ritonavir in non-hospitalized
> patients or as pre- or post-exposure prophylaxis for COVID-19."
>
>
> Jason
>

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