A few thoughts:
We are less than 100 miles away from the main epicenter of the disease
in the United States. By the time of the LFNW, we will likely know
whether that has been contained, or whether it got loose in the
community. At the present time, we do not know if containment will work
for the Seattle/Kirkland outbreak. This outbreak is unique, in that it
is centered in a Nursing Home, where all of the patients are in the
highly vulnerable category. We do know that several staffers at the
nursing home have tested positive and that many EMT first-responders are
now in quarantine.
Bottom line: By the second half of April, the news from Seattle and
Washington state may be scary enough the few people would wish to risk a
visit. Or, things could be fine.
Here's what we do know now:
Air travel demand is dropping precipitously, causing airlines to cancel
flights and reduce their overall schedule by 10 or 20% (or more).
Nationwide, severalmajor events have been postponed. For example, the
Indian Wells tennis tournament, one of the biggest tennis events in the
world, was just postponed. Here is a list of major events that have
already been canceled or postponed:
https://www.businessinsider.com/major-events-cancelled-or-postponed-due-to-the-coronavirus-2020
The decision of what to do with LFNW 2020 cannot be made in a vacuum.
The decision must take into account decisions that are being made by others.
There is no way that this year's LFNW can be a normal event.
Option 1: The event does not happen as currently planned:
A. We might choose to cancel/postpone the event.
B. The state or county may force us to cancel the event.
C. BTC may decide not to host the event. (This is not a long shot. Many
universities are closing, forcing students to take classes or exams
remotely, or even asking students in dorms to move off campus.)
Option 2: The event goes ahead as scheduled:
A. The event goes ahead as scheduled, but attendance is substantially
down. Several speakers withdraw. Some sponsors choose not to attend and
hold a booth.
B. The event goes ahead as scheduled, attendance is better than last
year, sessions are packed, exhibits are fully staffed, and everybody has
a good time.
Of all of these options, the one least likely to happen is 2B, the event
is held as planned and the covid-19 virus has no adverse effect on
attendance or any other aspect of the event.
Given this kind of uncertainly, I would suggest that worst-case scenario
analyses should be done and the decision-making process be driven by a
desire to avoid truly bad outcomes.
There are lots of possible bad outcomes:
A. The decision is made to cancel the event, but by 1 April it looks
like the virus outbreak has been completely contained and life is
returning to normal, but it is too late to resurrect the meeting.
B. The decision is made to go ahead as planned, but at the last minute
we are forced to cancel due to government edict or loss of venue.
C. The decision is made to go ahead as planned, but participation is
extremely low, around 30% of last year's attendance, or worse.
...
and more could be added.
This is one if those situations where there are no slam-dunk good
options. Any decision has the possibility of proving to be really bad.
The trick is to evaluate things based on the data at hand, with neither
doomsday alarmism nor mindless happy talk.
----
One final thought. Suppose the decision is made to cancel/postpone and
by the date the meeting should have happened, the virus has died down.
In that case, it would be worth asking, did the virus die down because
(in part) of widespread event cancellations?
Old joke:
Guy walks down the streets of New York City, constantly snapping his
fingers and humming.
Another guy asks him, what's with the snapping and humming?
Response: It keeps the wild elephants away.
Other guy: What?! Are you nuts? There are no wild elephants within five
thousand miles of New York.
Response: See. It works.
Analysis: It is sometimes difficult to tell the difference between truly
effective preventive measures and delusions.
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