Seeing your statements, "This is speculation.  But so are the 
stats ...." I have to guess you are not trained in the sciences or 
Mathematics.

Statistics, by themselves, are not speculation.  Nor is interpreting 
statistics speculation.  Some people, not properly trained, do engage 
in speculation about what some statistic might mean.  We do get MDs 
telling us coffee is bad for us one year and good for us another and 
the MDs will cite studies with statistics.  

The problem with people who don't understand statistics is they don't 
understand the probabilities of errors of various sizes.  They don't 
know whether their statistics express a meaningful result or whether 
the possible errors can swamp the effect they are trying to measure.

And you can lie with statistics.

But, it is not lying and not speculation to point to the lower rate of 
arrest for violent behavior (and practically non-existent conviction 
rates of Texas CHL holders).  And the results are significant (even 
with the likely errors, CHL holders are far less likely to run afoul of 
the law than average Texans).

What that means can be debated.

Phil Lee

> 
>       For what it's worth, a "deferred prosecution agreement" is 
going to show on those stats as a dismissal, as distinguished from a 
deferred adjudication,which would probably show as a probated 
sentence.  In such cases, the prosecutor has a nolo plea in his file 
which will travel to the court's file if there is any violation of the 
terms.
> 
>       Deferred prosecution is sometimes a flakey case or somebody too 
important for comfortable prosecution but it might also be a 
prosecutorial attitude toward firearms offenses.
> 
>       This is speculation.  But so are the stats, and that's my 
point.  Speculation no matter which side you are on.
> 
>       Steve Russell
> 
> > Phil Lee wrote:
> > 
> > > The claim about CHL holders of Texas having a higher arrest rate 
than
> > > average Texans is false.  Take a look at the article below.
> > 
> > The VPC cherry-picked the data and cited "weapons-related" arrests, 
> > rather than all arrests.
> > 

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