This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to
accurately assess.
A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a
comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the
numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19.
On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I think that is a little pessimistic. If you look at, say, the UK
Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things
like work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution
and so on. But they also have details on mortality and genomic
sequences.
*From: *Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David West
<profw...@fastmail.fm>
*Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
<friam@redfish.com>
*Date: *Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM
*To: *"friam@redfish.com" <friam@redfish.com>
*Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each
State? - The New York Times
When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be
hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the
formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for
those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of
astronomical epicycles.
And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100
individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture.
And they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.
No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had
empty toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked,
absent the usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic /
"scientific" study of these two counties and any other two counties in
the US with similar populations and population density/distributions
will never reveal the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural
investigation will expose the "reason" almost immediately.
I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most
importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the
"reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.
davew
On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com
<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> wrote:
Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?
N
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
*From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Steven A
Smith
*Sent:* Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM
*To:* friam@redfish.com
*Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each
State? - The New York Times
On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The
map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot.
Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest
Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike
Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.
This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute
numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators.
At least some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they
are not renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual
estimation of "slope".
On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org
<mailto:r...@elf.org>> wrote:
Hall County is a county located in the north central
portion of the U.S. state of Georgia. As of the 2010
census, the population was 179,684. The county seat is
Gainesville.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/
provides
maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per
100000 population.
-- rec --
On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣
<geprope...@gmail.com <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com>> wrote:
Hall: 20,441
DeKalb: 759,297
On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com
<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty
dramatic. Go Kemp! What is the population of the two
counties?
--
☣ uǝlƃ
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