Statistics + pathogenesis would be ideal but the latter is still not fully understood?
--- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Wed, May 6, 2020, 10:16 PM Marcus Daniels <[email protected]> wrote: > If there was ever a time statistical inference could work, it is when > there are millions of infected people, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and > a database that tracks biological and behavioral things about them. > > > > *From: *Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of Joe Spinden < > [email protected]> > *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Date: *Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 8:02 PM > *To: *"[email protected]" <[email protected]> > *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - > The New York Times > > > > This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to accurately > assess. > > A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a > comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the > numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19. > > > > > > On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > > I think that is a little pessimistic. If you look at, say, the UK > Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things like > work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution and so > on. But they also have details on mortality and genomic sequences. > > > > *From: *Friam <[email protected]> <[email protected]> on > behalf of Prof David West <[email protected]> <[email protected]> > *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > <[email protected]> <[email protected]> > *Date: *Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM > *To: *"[email protected]" <[email protected]> <[email protected]> > <[email protected]> > *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - > The New York Times > > > > When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be > hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the > formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those > anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical > epicycles. > > > > And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100 > individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And > they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies. > > > > No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty > toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the > usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific" > study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with > similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal > the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the > "reason" almost immediately. > > > > I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most > importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the > "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral. > > > > davew > > > > > > > > > > On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, [email protected] wrote: > > Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem? > > > > N > > > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> <[email protected]> *On > Behalf Of *Steven A Smith > > *Sent:* Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM > > *To:* [email protected] > > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - > The New York Times > > > > > > On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > > My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia > map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the > population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher > concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of > rural African Americans. > > This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute > numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators. At least > some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not > renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of > "slope". > > > > > > > > On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <[email protected]> wrote: > > Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. > state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The > county seat is Gainesville. > > > > > > > https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ > provides > maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population. > > > > -- rec -- > > > > > > > > On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[email protected]> wrote: > > Hall: 20,441 > > DeKalb: 759,297 > > > > On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, [email protected] wrote: > > > Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic. Go Kemp! What is > the population of the two counties? > > > > -- > > ☣ uǝlƃ > > > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/FRIAM-COMIC> > http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > > > > > -- > > Frank Wimberly > > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz > > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > > > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > > > > > > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > -- > > Joe > > > > Confidentiality Notice: This e-mail communication and any attachments may > contain confidential and privileged information for the use of the designated > recipients named above. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby > notified that you have received this communication in error and that any > review, disclosure, dissemination, distribution, or copying of it or its > contents is prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, > please notify me immediately by replying to this message and deleting it from > your computer. Thank you. > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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