[sigh] N=1 doesn't make for good estimates of correlation. I'm guessing you have no opinion on the question but prefer to answer a question that nobody asked. >8^D
On 10/28/20 5:00 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a very > close election. > > > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > > So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether high > turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories? > > > On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome > will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted > votes. Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly > voting against Trump. Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over Clinton > by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a similar > margin, according to polls. > > > > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated > perfectly after the events have happened. > > > > Frank > > > > --- > > Frank C. Wimberly > > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > > > 505 670-9918 > > Santa Fe, NM > > > > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>>> wrote: > > > > From: > > > > https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 > <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7> > <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 > <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7>> > > "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump > notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely." > > > > Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher > turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin > victories, not against them. -- ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
