I would think that the more people who vote the less likely a tie or close outcome becomes, simply by the larger number of ways you can miss with more votes in play.
-- rec -- On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:17 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> wrote: > N = 3 is slightly better. But I don't have time or incentive to do a > detailed statistical analysis. > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:14 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> wrote: > >> In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40. The Kennedy/Nixon and >> Gore/Bush elections were extremely close. In all three elections the >> turnout was between 35 and 40 percent. >> >> --- >> Frank C. Wimberly >> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >> >> 505 670-9918 >> Santa Fe, NM >> >> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:00 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a >>> very close election. >>> >>> --- >>> Frank C. Wimberly >>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>> >>> 505 670-9918 >>> Santa Fe, NM >>> >>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether >>>> high turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories? >>>> >>>> >>>> On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: >>>> > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome >>>> will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted >>>> votes. Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly >>>> voting against Trump. Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over >>>> Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a >>>> similar margin, according to polls. >>>> > >>>> > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated >>>> perfectly after the events have happened. >>>> > >>>> > Frank >>>> > >>>> > --- >>>> > Frank C. Wimberly >>>> > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>>> > Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>>> > >>>> > 505 670-9918 >>>> > Santa Fe, NM >>>> > >>>> > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[email protected] <mailto: >>>> [email protected]>> wrote: >>>> > >>>> > From: >>>> > >>>> > >>>> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 < >>>> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7> >>>> > "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump >>>> notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less >>>> likely." >>>> > >>>> > Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher >>>> turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin >>>> victories, not against them. >>>> >>>> -- >>>> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ >>>> >>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>> FRIAM-COMIC <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/FRIAM-COMIC> >>>> http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>> >>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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