N = 3 is slightly better. But I don't have time or incentive to do a detailed statistical analysis.
--- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:14 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> wrote: > In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40. The Kennedy/Nixon and > Gore/Bush elections were extremely close. In all three elections the > turnout was between 35 and 40 percent. > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:00 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> wrote: > >> I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a >> very close election. >> >> --- >> Frank C. Wimberly >> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >> >> 505 670-9918 >> Santa Fe, NM >> >> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether high >>> turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories? >>> >>> >>> On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: >>> > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the outcome >>> will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding uncounted >>> votes. Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and are reportedly >>> voting against Trump. Similarly the elderly, who favored Trump over >>> Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over Trump by a >>> similar margin, according to polls. >>> > >>> > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated >>> perfectly after the events have happened. >>> > >>> > Frank >>> > >>> > --- >>> > Frank C. Wimberly >>> > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>> > Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>> > >>> > 505 670-9918 >>> > Santa Fe, NM >>> > >>> > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[email protected] <mailto: >>> [email protected]>> wrote: >>> > >>> > From: >>> > >>> > https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 >>> <https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7> >>> > "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones Trump >>> notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less likely." >>> > >>> > Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher >>> turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin >>> victories, not against them. >>> >>> -- >>> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ >>> >>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> FRIAM-COMIC <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/FRIAM-COMIC> >>> http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> >>
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