Pollyanna! (ironic) --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Sat, May 16, 2020, 10:32 AM Marcus Daniels <[email protected]> wrote: > Here’s what I expect will probably happen. The PANDEMIC will be declared > over, like Mission Accomplished with W. There will be a slower burn until > fall, and then it will accelerate again. But people will be acclimate to > the death rate, like they acclimate to gun violence. Unemployment and > homelessness will soar and be persistent. Suicides will go up, and be > normalized. Meanwhile, people with the means will self-isolate and be the > first to get access to antiviral treatments. Out in the blood and muck, > herd immunity will begin to emerge in at risk populations. The U.S. will > continue to have high prevalence compared to other countries. History will > look back on this as a Chernobyl moment, where the prestige of the United > States fell to Asia. And a second term of Trump will ensure it. > > > > *From: *Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of Prof David West < > [email protected]> > *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Date: *Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM > *To: *"[email protected]" <[email protected]> > *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic > > > > Steve, > > > > Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a > distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The > latter will go away whether or not the disease does. > > > > The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to websites > like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to WHO, CDC, > and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable shift from personal > interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing to > economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with lots of > assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting a grocery > store; stories about death rates moving from the front page to the second > page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against restrictions with > quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the central > theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science tells, us, > whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature. > > > > Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave crests" in > terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big enough for > the "experts" to claim they are right, but not big enough to trigger any > socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting of same > with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely result in > furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience. > > > > davew > > > > > > > > On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote: > > Dave - > > The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020. > > Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to respond > to the singular prediction above: > > > > What means "end"? What is a specific statistic that you believe to > indicate that the pandemic has ended? > > From Wikipedia: > > A *pandemic* (from Greek <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek> > πᾶν, *pan*, "all" and δῆμος, *demos*, "people") is an epidemic > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic> of disease > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease> that has spread across a large > region, for instance multiple continents > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents> or worldwide, affecting a > substantial number of people. A widespread endemic > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)> disease with a > stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic > diseases with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of > seasonal > influenza <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza> are > generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the > globe rather than being spread worldwide. > > The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic: > > https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/ > > [image: Image removed by sender.] > > *In the **post-pandemic** period, influenza disease activity will have > returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected > that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At > this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic > preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery > and evaluation may be required.* > > > > Or maybe some other (measurable) definition? > > - Steve > > > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > > > > -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... > ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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