Here’s what I expect will probably happen. The PANDEMIC will
be
declared over, like Mission Accomplished with W. There will be a
slower
burn until fall, and then it will accelerate again. But people
will be
acclimate to the death rate, like they acclimate to gun violence.
Unemployment and homelessness will soar and be persistent.
Suicides will
go up, and be normalized. Meanwhile, people with the means will
self-isolate and be the first to get access to antiviral
treatments. Out
in the blood and muck, herd immunity will begin to emerge in at
risk
populations. The U.S. will continue to have high prevalence
compared to
other countries. History will look back on this as a Chernobyl
moment,
where the prestige of the United States fell to Asia. And a
second term
of Trump will ensure it.
*From: *Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of Prof David
West
<[email protected]>
*Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
[email protected]>
*Date: *Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM
*To: *"[email protected]" <[email protected]>
*Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
Steve,
Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I
made a
distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived
PANDEMIC. The
latter will go away whether or not the disease does.
The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to
websites
like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to
WHO, CDC,
and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable shift from
personal
interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing
to
economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with
lots of
assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting
a grocery
store; stories about death rates moving from the front page to the
second
page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against
restrictions with
quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the
central
theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science tells, us,
whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature.
Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave
crests"
in terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big
enough for
the "experts" to claim they are right, but not big enough to
trigger any
socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting
of same
with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely
result in
furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience.
davew
On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:
Dave -
The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June,
2020.
Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to
respond to the singular prediction above:
What means "end"? What is a specific statistic that you believe
to
indicate that the pandemic has ended?
From Wikipedia:
A *pandemic* (from Greek
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek>
πᾶν, *pan*, "all" and δῆμος, *demos*, "people") is an
epidemic
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic> of disease
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease> that has spread across a
large
region, for instance multiple continents
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents> or worldwide, affecting
a
substantial number of people. A widespread endemic
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)> disease
with a
stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread
endemic
diseases with a stable number of infected people such as
recurrences of seasonal
influenza <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza> are
generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions
of the
globe rather than being spread worldwide.
The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/
[image: Image removed by sender.]
*In the **post-pandemic** period, influenza disease activity will
have
returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is
expected
that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A
virus. At
this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update
pandemic
preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of
recovery
and evaluation may be required.*
Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?
- Steve
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