I didn't notice the date. I thought it was newly posted. Why would it have appeared in my email? Maybe I did a search and saw Marcus's message by coincidence. At least my comment was brief.
--- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Sun, Sep 12, 2021, 9:50 PM Gary Schiltz <[email protected]> wrote: > Maybe I missed something, but what prompted you to dig up a 16 month old > comment from Marcus to respond to? > > On Sun, Sep 12, 2021 at 3:29 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> > wrote: > >> Pollyanna! (ironic) >> >> --- >> Frank C. Wimberly >> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> >> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> >> >> 505 670-9918 >> Santa Fe, NM >> >> On Sat, May 16, 2020, 10:32 AM Marcus Daniels <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> Here’s what I expect will probably happen. The PANDEMIC will be >>> declared over, like Mission Accomplished with W. There will be a slower >>> burn until fall, and then it will accelerate again. But people will be >>> acclimate to the death rate, like they acclimate to gun violence. >>> Unemployment and homelessness will soar and be persistent. Suicides will >>> go up, and be normalized. Meanwhile, people with the means will >>> self-isolate and be the first to get access to antiviral treatments. Out >>> in the blood and muck, herd immunity will begin to emerge in at risk >>> populations. The U.S. will continue to have high prevalence compared to >>> other countries. History will look back on this as a Chernobyl moment, >>> where the prestige of the United States fell to Asia. And a second term >>> of Trump will ensure it. >>> >>> >>> >>> *From: *Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of Prof David West < >>> [email protected]> >>> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >>> [email protected]> >>> *Date: *Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM >>> *To: *"[email protected]" <[email protected]> >>> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic >>> >>> >>> >>> Steve, >>> >>> >>> >>> Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a >>> distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The >>> latter will go away whether or not the disease does. >>> >>> >>> >>> The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to websites >>> like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to WHO, CDC, >>> and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable shift from personal >>> interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing to >>> economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with lots of >>> assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting a grocery >>> store; stories about death rates moving from the front page to the second >>> page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against restrictions with >>> quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the central >>> theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science tells, us, >>> whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature. >>> >>> >>> >>> Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave crests" >>> in terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big enough for >>> the "experts" to claim they are right, but not big enough to trigger any >>> socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting of same >>> with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely result in >>> furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience. >>> >>> >>> >>> davew >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote: >>> >>> Dave - >>> >>> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020. >>> >>> Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to >>> respond to the singular prediction above: >>> >>> >>> >>> What means "end"? What is a specific statistic that you believe to >>> indicate that the pandemic has ended? >>> >>> From Wikipedia: >>> >>> A *pandemic* (from Greek <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek> >>> πᾶν, *pan*, "all" and δῆμος, *demos*, "people") is an epidemic >>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic> of disease >>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease> that has spread across a large >>> region, for instance multiple continents >>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents> or worldwide, affecting a >>> substantial number of people. A widespread endemic >>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)> disease with a >>> stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic >>> diseases with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of >>> seasonal >>> influenza <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza> are >>> generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the >>> globe rather than being spread worldwide. >>> >>> The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic: >>> >>> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/ >>> >>> [image: Image removed by sender.] >>> >>> *In the **post-pandemic** period, influenza disease activity will have >>> returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected >>> that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At >>> this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic >>> preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery >>> and evaluation may be required.* >>> >>> >>> >>> Or maybe some other (measurable) definition? >>> >>> - Steve >>> >>> >>> >>> .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- >>> ... .... . ... >>> >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> >>> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> >>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . >>> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> >> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >
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