Isn't bullying and being a good negotiator two different things? One could be a bully and also a skilled negotiator, right?
I'm not an expert on Trump, so some of my assumptions may be off. For example, I assume Trump had a successful run as a property developer in New York. To achieve that, it seems reasonable that he would need to be effective at, among other things, negotiating. Whether he achieved this by being a bully or not, I can’t say. Being a "nice guy" isn't necessarily a requirement for becoming a successful world leader. Success as a world leader requires a long list of skills, and I’m not arguing that Trump would perform better than Harris—I genuinely don’t know. My point is simply that having a background in managing complex property development projects likely involves successful negotiations and skill in playing the game of chicken, both of which might be valuable. While being a bully could be a negative, it might belong on a different line of that checklist. On Thu, 31 Oct 2024 at 23:08, steve smith <[email protected]> wrote: > > Jochen Fromm sed: > > No, he is not a skilled negotiator at all. > > Some people mistake (conflate?) bullying for "negotiating". > > Musk is also a bully and I doubt anyone who has done business or tried to > maintain personal relationships with him (e.g. his children and their > mothers, etc) will not disagree. Trump's whole cohort/contingent are > bullies of various stripes (Stone and Bannon and Miller, Graham, Jordan, > MTG) as well. Effective bullies know how to defer to bigger bullies, to > deal efficiently with anyone willing/able to stand up to them. They might > do their smackdown alone if their victim is weak, but easily gang up with > others to smack down stronger ones. Putin is clearly a bully's bully and > Trumps other hero/buddies come in on the same ticket. I don't understand > Xi or Modhi, since Trump doesn't gush over them like he does Putin and > Orban and Kim Jong Un. > > The (informal) expansion of BRICS to include a bit of the Middle East may > suggest more global stability that comes with dynamic balances (1 > superpower/coalition is either 1 too many or several too few?). > > There is the argument "yes, he's a bully/@$$H*L3 but he's OUR > bully/A********) but that is perhaps the lamest argument ever? I've made > that mistake myself before and I am totally over it. > > Re: the "great removal"... while the Nazi anti-Semite > movement/action/horror is not an entirely wrong comparison, but we here > have several major poorly thought-out but harsh purges in the recent > history of the US. The Japanese-American Internment (there was a camp in > Santa Fe where Solano Center is now) in the 40s, and the depression era of > "Mexican Repatriation" which was somewhat indiscriminate about whether > those "repatriated" were US Citizens (many were), or had family/roots in > Mexico (many did not) or even spoke Spanish (many did not). I believe > most of this was in southern CA, as an imagined way to reduce the stress on > the job market and on goods, but like the Japanese Internment it was at > root driven by racism, xenophobia and greed. Many merchant class families > from both groups had their businesses taken over or bought out for pennies > on the dollar by their former friends/neighbors quite eagerly. All you had > to do was have the wrong surname and/or complexion and not enough resources > to resist. > > Trump's "one day, one hour of extreme violence" and "I'll only be a > dictator on day one" smack way too much of Krystalnacht for my taste... > > This is a myth, isn't it? He has no patience for long and complicated > negotiations. He basically acts like a bully who demands loyalty, as James > Comey reported. He is only good at lying and cheating and hiding that he > cheated (which is the reason why he was convicted). Even the MAGA motto is > a lie: instead of making America great he will ruin it. Like Captain Ahab > in Moby Dick he will ruin everything on his quest for personal revenge. > > For example if he expels the Mexican immigrants, nobody will clean the > houses of the superrich anymore. Or wash the dishes in hotels and > restaurants. This dirty work is typically done by immigrants and people of > color, all over the world. > > -J. > > > -------- Original message -------- > From: Pieter Steenekamp <[email protected]> > <[email protected]> > Date: 10/31/24 3:39 PM (GMT+01:00) > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> > <[email protected]> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] What if Trump Wins? > > The Case for Trump > > I'm not suggesting that Trump is a model leader; he has many moral > shortcomings. And yes, if we view the U.S. President as the de facto leader > of the West, it's fair to ask: Can’t we do better? I also won’t debate > whether someone like Harris might make a better president. My point is > this: If Trump is elected, might there be areas where his unique style > could actually make him an effective leader? > > One thing Trump can do is negotiate. As a potential leader of the West, > there are benefits he could bring in negotiating with adversaries, > including BRICS countries. Let me explain using an analogy: the character > James Dean played in Rebel Without a Cause. In a game of chicken, Dean's > character pretended to be drunk, making his opponent believe he was > reckless—eventually causing them to back down. > > Trump has a history of employing similar tactics. For instance, when > building in New York, he once proposed a design that violated height > limits. When this was denied, he proposed a much uglier building that > followed the code. Ultimately, he got approval to build his original > design, with the height exemption he wanted. Whether or not he would have > gone through with his threat is unclear, but he got what he wanted by > throwing a calculated tantrum. > > In the same way, Trump's current claims about what he would do > internationally could simply be part of his proven negotiation tactics. > World leaders see him as “reckless” in the same way James Dean’s opponents > did, making them reconsider their own moves. > > Ultimately, Trump may be an unconventional choice, but he is a skilled > negotiator—one who could, in his own way, secure some advantageous outcomes > for the West. > > On Thu, 31 Oct 2024 at 13:07, Santafe <[email protected]> wrote: > >> The newspapers, and any number of writers, do a good job spelling all >> this out. >> >> I have this frustrated feeling that doing this misses the point that is >> driving the dynamic. >> >> One of the good things that Paxton emphasizes about what drives fascist >> movements from the ground up is the determined rejection of thought in >> favor of feeling. Hannah Arendt goes on at length to get the same thing >> across. >> >> I envision it (with some discomfort about misfits of the metaphor) as >> being like a social counterpart to berserking, or (even less apt) elephants >> going into musth. It’s not even “rage” per se, but something about as >> destructive, only chosen. >> >> I see the various repubs that make communities with the dems, and speak >> as if they hope this will “accomplish” some “change”. For the >> Bannon-followers, I feel like I know exactly what this looks like. It is >> the various subcategories of hated ones self-identifying, and sewing on >> their sleeves a marker of “establishment characters”. Bannon preaches to >> the mob: “You see; they’re scared! We have them on the run. If you’ll >> just push a little harder we can corner them, and we’ll give them the >> beating of their lives. Imagine how powerful you will feel. They’ll want >> you to stop, and they won’t be faking it, but they won’t be able to make >> you stop. Won’t that be the best feeling you ever had? You’ll be able to >> feel, finally, that you actually exist.” (Bannon doesn’t put in the final >> line; I put that in.) >> >> >> I guess I don’t want to argue against the things people are trying to do >> (Michael Luttig, various Cheneys, and whoever). The voting block that can >> cause the calamity is certainly a coalition of non-identical groups. If we >> think there are categories of Spontaneous Racists and Stimulated Racists >> (to borrow a term from spectroscopy), the part of the voting bloc that is >> made up of the spontaneous ones may not be all that large; maybe 20%? Not >> as large as the evangelicals (35–40%?, with some overlap). There >> presumably are some genuinely out-to-lunch types, and maybe one can imagine >> that talking has some place with them, which could be enough to move the >> margin of this winner-take-all event we are stuck with. And then the ones >> that can think enough to be strategically greedy or hoarding, but not >> circumspect enough to have every cared or understood how the society they >> suck from actually functions. _Maybe_ talking could have some effect with >> them. >> >> >> I have thought, too, since some NYT article by a guy from Bucks county PA >> going home, and thinking that the trump voters actively wanted “the trump >> vibe; the meanness, bullying and name-calling, etc.” that this is an >> expression of a certain component of nihilism. >> >> Whoever wrote the screenplay for Apocalypse Now was very good. Kurtz’s >> line in one of the soliloquays: >> >> “Have you ever wondered what it would be like to be completely free? >> Free from the judgments of others; even of yourself?” >> >> There is a core of nihilism in that freedom. What would it feel like to >> go punch somebody for no particular reason, except that I felt like it? >> Burn whatever some people mean by “the bonds of human affection” that >> “include us in humanity”. Yes, I sort of understand (and this probably is >> important) that whoever I hit will now know he has to fear me, and he may >> even dislike or hate me, and it may be irreversible. But if he can’t do >> anything to me, why do I care? In fact, if he wants to and still can’t, >> even better: that will give me that experience of power that I imagine must >> be so nice to feel, but that if it is, I certainly don’t feel now. >> >> It’s not as simple a category as all that, because they are willing to do >> this only if they believe they are members in the mob. Whether that’s >> community or just a release from the requirements of either responsibility >> or courage I can’t say. >> >> >> But I do think that, in the U.S., a crucial conversion that Arendt >> articulates, from a mere mass into a mob, has now been achieved, and the >> mob is awake and self-aware as a mob. It took a sociopath to go charging >> out across the minefield that normal people are too chicken to venture >> into, to show how far out the actual shooting-boundary is, beyond where >> they had drawn back before. But now that the boundary has been identified, >> that’s public information, and the others don’t need to be sociopaths to >> use it. It changes the problem, because there are a lot more of them than >> of the true sociopaths. >> >> >> I agree, we would like to first get through the next week without an >> acute disaster. But the system organization has passed through a >> re-arrangement by now. I would like to know what a program looks like to >> reverse that, without having to go through the whole Hodgkin-Huxley circuit >> of the society’s destroying itself before there is enough exhaustion to try >> for a reset. Since, under the conditions that are likely by that time, >> it’s not clear what kind of “reset” might even be available. >> >> Eric >> >> >> >> >> >> > On Oct 31, 2024, at 4:59 AM, Russ Abbott <[email protected]> wrote: >> > >> > To help prevent such a disaster, let's do our best to help people >> imagine what the world would look like if Trump wins. >> > >> > For example, Trump has said that one of his priorities would be to >> throw off the occupying army of invading immigrants and criminals. Ask >> people to think about how this occupying force is currently ruining >> people's lives. I suspect that very few people have any experience of such >> a noxious invading force. Most people find their lives relatively peaceful. >> But if Trump begins to implement his plan to throw off this occupying >> force, the streets would be full of armed deportation agents chasing down >> the evil occupying forces. Gunfights would erupt between the deportation >> agents and immigrants running for their lives. Many of us would be caught >> in the crossfire--or holed up at home trying to avoid the bullets. Ask >> people to imagine such a world and to compare it to the relatively peaceful >> world we now occupy. Ask them if that is really what we want and if that is >> what we will be voting for next Tuesday. >> > >> > -- Russ Abbott >> > Professor Emeritus, Computer Science >> > California State University, Los Angeles >> > >> > >> > On Wed, Oct 30, 2024 at 11:48 PM Jochen Fromm <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> > Here in Europe most people are indeed worried that the candidate who is >> a convicted felon and wears orange makeup will become president again. Have >> his fans all forgotten he mainly played golf, praised dictators and created >> tax cuts for the superrich? But there is also a bit of hope that a woman >> will stop him this time. >> > >> > A hundred years ago there was already a group in America that hated >> Blacks and immigrants. As Timothy Egan writes in his book "A Fever in the >> Heartland: The Ku Klux Klan's Plot to Take Over America, and the Woman Who >> Stopped Them" one of the Ku Klux Klan leaders was a charismatic charlatan >> named D.C. Stephenson. He was eventually brought down by a woman, Madge >> Oberholtzer, who would reveal his cruelties, and whose testimony stopped >> the Klan. When Europe fell into darkness, America was able to stop the con >> man. I hope it can do it again. >> > >> https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/558306/a-fever-in-the-heartland-by-timothy-egan/ >> > >> > -J. >> > >> > >> > -------- Original message -------- >> > From: Nicholas Thompson <[email protected]> >> > Date: 10/30/24 10:54 PM (GMT+01:00) >> > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >> [email protected]> >> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Evolutionary transitions between egalitarian and >> despotic societies >> > >> > Hi, Jochen, >> > >> > Not sarcastic. It was to show the exploratory nature of such models. >> I do believe that the most mysterious feature of charisma is the behavior >> of the charasmees. However this election turns out, almost half the >> country is about to willingly offer up it's political autonomy to a >> potential dictator. Whatever my faults, I try, try, TRY not to do >> sarcasm. I do wonder if we could build models that explore under what >> circumstances it is better for everybody to do SOMETHING then to take the >> time to pool information and do the right thing. >> > >> > In general evolutionary history has no actual power to constrain our >> present behavior. Our behavior is constrainted by present events and >> present behavioral repertoire. >> > >> > Nick >> > >> > On Wed, Oct 30, 2024 at 2:37 PM Jochen Fromm <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> > In her book "The Social Instinct" Nichola Raihani mentions in chapter >> 17 the article "An evolutionary model explaining the Neolithic transition >> from egalitarianism to leadership and despotism" from Simon T. Powers as a >> model how despotic regimes and dominance hierarchies have evolved in early >> human societies. >> > https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rspb.2014.1349 >> > >> > It reminds me of our recent discussion triggered by Nick's (sarcastic?) >> proposal to explain parts of the MAGA movement in terms of evolutionary >> psychology. Simon T. Powers is an interdisciplinary researcher working at >> the University of Sterling >> > https://www.stir.ac.uk/people/2013555 >> > >> > A more recent article from him about "Modelling transitions between >> egalitarian, dynamic leader and absolutist power structures" can be found >> here >> > https://www.stir.ac.uk/research/hub/publication/2041639 >> > >> > -J. >> > >> > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . >> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam >> > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> > archives: 5/2017 thru present >> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >> > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >> > >> > >> > -- >> > Nicholas S. 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