Pieter -
Thanks for the detailed analysis/report of the state of SA
socio-politics. It is good for US fat and happy 'murricans to be
reminded that the rest of the world has it's own challenges, even those
we casually imagine to be "living the good life".
I hear a class or style of pragmatism running through the SA national
progression and perhaps your own personal experience which I am familiar
with. This from my own background and amongst the *myriad* MAGA folks
I am at least acquainted with here, if not actually somewhat closely
connected (relatives, neighbors, etc.). I'm also a strong idealist in
my own ways but either leavened with or schizoided by instinctual
pragmatism. I say that as a peacenik who somehow resolved working in
the immediate vicinity of nuclear weapons design for order 10+ years
before becoming disillusioned with MAD and finally disengaging from that
system over the political/corporate corruption only superficially hidden
(when Bechtel Corp took possession of most of the US Nuclear Design
Jewels in 2006/7).
I imagine SA to have some of the same "frontier" ideals/habits that the
American West (and south and midwest) to carry. Your end-of-Apartheid
is/was very different/similar than our own Civil Rights era and probably
still burbling stronger even than our own with all our own unrest.
Your level of struggle with corruption makes me think of that reported
by the young colleagues I was working with in Ukraine leading up to the
2014 moments there.... the ethnically Russian/Ukrainian born-raised one
of the pair was adamant: "we are ending our corruption the hard but
only way, we are all choosing not to engage in it, if something cannot
be done without a bribe, we can outwait the corrupt bribe-takers until
they all are starved out of their positions of power". I don't know if
it was a right way to act but it felt right-headed in spirit. I also
don't know how well it worked out... I got the feeling they had already
been on that program since the mid/late 2000 decade? I lost touch at
the diffraction point of the Russian invasion but hear through mutual
colleagues that they are "thriving" if only in their war resistance
efforts. The Russian-Ukranian is likely very loyal to his birthland but
it may put him at odds with his parents and extended family.
On 11/1/24 11:04 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
Steve,
I’d like to address your question: "/Do you identify as a South
African (Dutch descent vs. English) with BRICS, or is it a fiction
that you and/or South Africa don't buy into? A significant correlation
(IMO) among BRICS+ nations is strong authoritarianism or at least
democratic backsliding." /
/
/
I’ll start with an executive summary followed by details.
*Executive Summary
*
Under former President Jacob Zuma, South Africa experienced a slide
toward autocracy and poor governance, with Zuma developing close ties
to Russia. However, the current President Cyril Ramaphosa has shifted
the country back to pragmatic governance, actively rooting out
corruption and establishing good governance practices. The focus now
is primarily on service delivery and addressing everyday issues, with
less emphasis on BRICS and other global matters.
*A wee bit more details
*
*Historical Background and BRICS Dynamics
*
South Africa’s relationship with BRICS has deep historical roots. In
the 1980s, liberation movements like the ANC received significant
support from Russia and China to overthrow the apartheid regime. The
ANC, initially led by Nelson Mandela and later by others, established
pragmatic ties with both Western and BRICS countries, leading to South
Africa’s membership in BRICS.
*Recent Political Developments
*
In the April general election this year, the ANC lost its outright
majority and formed a coalition government with the DA, known as the
Government of National Unity (GNU). The ANC secured approximately 40%
of the vote, while the DA received around 20%. The GNU also includes
several minor parties, but it effectively functions as a coalition
between the ANC and DA.
*Socio-Political Landscape
*
*Support Base:* ANC supporters are predominantly Black, while the DA
has significant support among white voters, though it also includes
Black supporters.
As for me personally, I find myself somewhat on the fence: I lean
toward supporting the DA, but I also have very high regards for Cyril
Ramaphosa’s leadership, focussing on inclusion and good governance,
even if I don’t fully support the ANC.
*Governance:* The Government of National Unity GNU has been effective
in improving service delivery and addressing basic needs. Leadership
from both the ANC and DA appears mature and cooperative, working
together to enhance the lives of ordinary citizens, despite some
exceptions and complexities.
*BRICS Conference and Internal Dynamics*
Recently, Russia hosted a BRICS conference attended by President
Ramaphosa, who displayed warm relations with President Putin. This has
caused internal friction within the DA, particularly among its white
supporters who strongly oppose Russia’s actions in the Ukraine war.
However, the prevailing sentiment is that focusing on service delivery
and pressing domestic issues outweighs concerns over South Africa’s
implicit support for Putin’s actions. As a result, Ramaphosa’s
engagement with Russia is generally accepted without significant
controversy.
*Specifically addressing your questions
*
*Governance and Authoritarianism
*
*Jacob Zuma’s Era*
Zuma was marked by corruption and authoritarian tendencies.
*Current situation under Cyril Ramaphosa’s Leadership*
There is a strong shift toward good governance under Ramaphosa,
emphasizing transparency and accountability.
*BRICS Relationships:* Historical Support: The support from Russia and
China during the liberation struggle has left a lasting positive
impression among the majority of Black South Africans.
*Current Sentiment*: This historical alliance continues to influence
contemporary views, making BRICS relationships generally favorable
among the population.
*Ramaphosa’s Pragmatism:* Diplomatic Strategy: Ramaphosa’s warm
relations with Putin are likely aimed at acknowledging historical
support and maintaining strong ties with BRICS nations.
*Future Orientation:* His focus appears to be on leveraging Western
partnerships to further South Africa’s development based on democratic
principles and good governance, distancing the country from
authoritarian influences.
Pieter
On Fri, 1 Nov 2024 at 18:23, steve smith <[email protected]> wrote:
Pieter -
It is very useful to me to have the geopolitical parallax you
offer. If
in fact many folks outside the USA see Trump as an effective
negotiator,
up to and including "bullying as negotiation by other means" then
this
is significant and interesting to me.
As I've referenced a few times, I'm interested in the NATO+/BRICS+
polarization that has emerged. Do you identify as a SA (Dutch
descent
vs English?) with BRICS or is it a fiction that you and/or SA
don't buy
into? A significant correlation (IMO) among BRICS+ nations is a
strong
authoritarianism or at least democratic backsliding. Trump has
already
undermined NATO's stability and will likely do it again, some more
up to
withdrawal/abandonment. Will that lead to "joining" BRICS+? It seems
unlikely Trump's style suggests he will set himself (with US
economic/military might) up as a third faction in a multipolar world.
I'm sympathetic with those who cringe at a Unipolar or even Bipolar
world which has been forming and reforming since WWI it seems?
Yet I
also think we are inevitably becoming a global superorganism?
It does
seem likely that multiple super-organisms will form a dynamic balance
before they eventually lose their independent identities. Perhaps
that
can only occur fully as humanity (and Terran life in general?) go
extra-planetary?
I recently listened to an interview with Kimball Musk which
expanded my
appreciation for how complex social dynamics are or have been in
SA, and
how the violence of their childhood was formative for both he and
Elon
(in complementary ways?).
More parallax is good.
FWIW I don't think Trump's negotiating style is entirely ineffective,
obviously he has obtained the power he has through some kinds of
effectuality. My issue is whether "bullying is negotiation by other
means" and whether I want to support or profit from it or be
associated
with it. I rode Elno's coat-tails financially (TSLA stock) for a
while
but finally felt I absolutely had to wipe his cooties off of me...
his
most recent behaviour (starting with Twitter takeover, ramping up
with
dancing giddily on stage with Trump and setting up $1M lotteries to
motivate support) is beyond *my* pale (what a convoluted idiom
that one
is!).
- Steve
> There seems to be a strong consensus in this group that Trump
does not
> have a track record of being an effective negotiator, and his
> perceived bullying only reinforces this view. So, contrary to
what I
> previously suggested, it’s not a separate issue.
>
> This topic has come up in various threads, and I may have
overlooked
> some of those discussions, which could mean I’ve been asserting
things
> that differ from what’s already been broadly accepted here.
>
> For now, I’ll step back from this thread and acknowledge that my
> perspective on Trump as an effective negotiator isn’t widely
shared.
> Let's agree to disagree.
-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom
https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives: 5/2017 thru present
https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/
1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p
Zoomhttps://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to (un)subscribehttp://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIChttp://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives: 5/2017 thru presenthttps://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/
1/2003 thru 6/2021http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom
https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/
1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
