Pieter -
Thanks for the detailed analysis/report of the state of SA
socio-politics. It is good for US fat and happy 'murricans to be
reminded
that the rest of the world has it's own challenges, even those we
casually
imagine to be "living the good life".
I hear a class or style of pragmatism running through the SA national
progression and perhaps your own personal experience which I am
familiar
with. This from my own background and amongst the *myriad* MAGA
folks I
am at least acquainted with here, if not actually somewhat closely
connected (relatives, neighbors, etc.). I'm also a strong idealist
in my
own ways but either leavened with or schizoided by instinctual
pragmatism. I say that as a peacenik who somehow resolved working
in the
immediate vicinity of nuclear weapons design for order 10+ years
before
becoming disillusioned with MAD and finally disengaging from that
system
over the political/corporate corruption only superficially hidden
(when
Bechtel Corp took possession of most of the US Nuclear Design Jewels
in
2006/7).
I imagine SA to have some of the same "frontier" ideals/habits that
the
American West (and south and midwest) to carry. Your
end-of-Apartheid
is/was very different/similar than our own Civil Rights era and
probably
still burbling stronger even than our own with all our own unrest.
Your level of struggle with corruption makes me think of that
reported by
the young colleagues I was working with in Ukraine leading up to the
2014
moments there.... the ethnically Russian/Ukrainian born-raised one
of the
pair was adamant: "we are ending our corruption the hard but only
way, we
are all choosing not to engage in it, if something cannot be done
without a
bribe, we can outwait the corrupt bribe-takers until they all are
starved
out of their positions of power". I don't know if it was a right
way to
act but it felt right-headed in spirit. I also don't know how well
it
worked out... I got the feeling they had already been on that program
since
the mid/late 2000 decade? I lost touch at the diffraction point of
the
Russian invasion but hear through mutual colleagues that they are
"thriving" if only in their war resistance efforts. The
Russian-Ukranian
is likely very loyal to his birthland but it may put him at odds with
his
parents and extended family.
On 11/1/24 11:04 PM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
Steve,
I’d like to address your question: "*Do you identify as a South
African
(Dutch descent vs. English) with BRICS, or is it a fiction that you
and/or
South Africa don't buy into? A significant correlation (IMO) among
BRICS+
nations is strong authoritarianism or at least democratic
backsliding." *
I’ll start with an executive summary followed by details.
*Executive Summary *
Under former President Jacob Zuma, South Africa experienced a slide
toward
autocracy and poor governance, with Zuma developing close ties to
Russia.
However, the current President Cyril Ramaphosa has shifted the
country back
to pragmatic governance, actively rooting out corruption and
establishing
good governance practices. The focus now is primarily on service
delivery
and addressing everyday issues, with less emphasis on BRICS and other
global matters.
*A wee bit more details *
*Historical Background and BRICS Dynamics *
South Africa’s relationship with BRICS has deep historical roots.
In the
1980s, liberation movements like the ANC received significant support
from
Russia and China to overthrow the apartheid regime. The ANC,
initially led
by Nelson Mandela and later by others, established pragmatic ties
with both
Western and BRICS countries, leading to South Africa’s membership
in BRICS.
*Recent Political Developments *
In the April general election this year, the ANC lost its outright
majority and formed a coalition government with the DA, known as the
Government of National Unity (GNU). The ANC secured approximately 40%
of
the vote, while the DA received around 20%. The GNU also includes
several
minor parties, but it effectively functions as a coalition between
the ANC
and DA.
*Socio-Political Landscape *
*Support Base:* ANC supporters are predominantly Black, while the DA
has
significant support among white voters, though it also includes Black
supporters.
As for me personally, I find myself somewhat on the fence: I lean
toward
supporting the DA, but I also have very high regards for Cyril
Ramaphosa’s
leadership, focussing on inclusion and good governance, even if I
don’t
fully support the ANC.
*Governance:* The Government of National Unity GNU has been effective
in
improving service delivery and addressing basic needs. Leadership
from both
the ANC and DA appears mature and cooperative, working together to
enhance
the lives of ordinary citizens, despite some exceptions and
complexities.
*BRICS Conference and Internal Dynamics*
Recently, Russia hosted a BRICS conference attended by President
Ramaphosa, who displayed warm relations with President Putin. This
has
caused internal friction within the DA, particularly among its white
supporters who strongly oppose Russia’s actions in the Ukraine war.
However, the prevailing sentiment is that focusing on service
delivery and
pressing domestic issues outweighs concerns over South Africa’s
implicit
support for Putin’s actions. As a result, Ramaphosa’s engagement
with
Russia is generally accepted without significant controversy.
*Specifically addressing your questions *
*Governance and Authoritarianism *
*Jacob Zuma’s Era*
Zuma was marked by corruption and authoritarian tendencies.
*Current situation under Cyril Ramaphosa’s Leadership*
There is a strong shift toward good governance under Ramaphosa,
emphasizing transparency and accountability.
*BRICS Relationships:* Historical Support: The support from Russia
and
China during the liberation struggle has left a lasting positive
impression
among the majority of Black South Africans.
*Current Sentiment*: This historical alliance continues to influence
contemporary views, making BRICS relationships generally favorable
among
the population.
*Ramaphosa’s Pragmatism:* Diplomatic Strategy: Ramaphosa’s warm
relations
with Putin are likely aimed at acknowledging historical support and
maintaining strong ties with BRICS nations.
*Future Orientation:* His focus appears to be on leveraging Western
partnerships to further South Africa’s development based on
democratic
principles and good governance, distancing the country from
authoritarian
influences.
Pieter
On Fri, 1 Nov 2024 at 18:23, steve smith <[email protected]> wrote:
Pieter -
It is very useful to me to have the geopolitical parallax you offer.
If
in fact many folks outside the USA see Trump as an effective
negotiator,
up to and including "bullying as negotiation by other means" then
this
is significant and interesting to me.
As I've referenced a few times, I'm interested in the NATO+/BRICS+
polarization that has emerged. Do you identify as a SA (Dutch
descent
vs English?) with BRICS or is it a fiction that you and/or SA don't
buy
into? A significant correlation (IMO) among BRICS+ nations is a
strong
authoritarianism or at least democratic backsliding. Trump has
already
undermined NATO's stability and will likely do it again, some more
up to
withdrawal/abandonment. Will that lead to "joining" BRICS+? It
seems
unlikely Trump's style suggests he will set himself (with US
economic/military might) up as a third faction in a multipolar
world.
I'm sympathetic with those who cringe at a Unipolar or even Bipolar
world which has been forming and reforming since WWI it seems? Yet
I
also think we are inevitably becoming a global superorganism? It
does
seem likely that multiple super-organisms will form a dynamic
balance
before they eventually lose their independent identities. Perhaps
that
can only occur fully as humanity (and Terran life in general?) go
extra-planetary?
I recently listened to an interview with Kimball Musk which expanded
my
appreciation for how complex social dynamics are or have been in SA,
and
how the violence of their childhood was formative for both he and
Elon
(in complementary ways?).
More parallax is good.
FWIW I don't think Trump's negotiating style is entirely
ineffective,
obviously he has obtained the power he has through some kinds of
effectuality. My issue is whether "bullying is negotiation by other
means" and whether I want to support or profit from it or be
associated
with it. I rode Elno's coat-tails financially (TSLA stock) for a
while
but finally felt I absolutely had to wipe his cooties off of me...
his
most recent behaviour (starting with Twitter takeover, ramping up
with
dancing giddily on stage with Trump and setting up $1M lotteries to
motivate support) is beyond *my* pale (what a convoluted idiom that
one
is!).
- Steve
There seems to be a strong consensus in this group that Trump does
not
have a track record of being an effective negotiator, and his
perceived bullying only reinforces this view. So, contrary to what
I
previously suggested, it’s not a separate issue.
This topic has come up in various threads, and I may have
overlooked
some of those discussions, which could mean I’ve been asserting
things
that differ from what’s already been broadly accepted here.
For now, I’ll step back from this thread and acknowledge that my
perspective on Trump as an effective negotiator isn’t widely
shared.
Let's agree to disagree.
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