On the eve of September 11, I'm going to speculate about what Bush may announce tomorrow. He needs something very special in order to continue the momentum of his Middle East policy and revalidate himself internationally. I think he may announce that there has been a serious change in the Saudi Arabian government -- and that, among other things, the latter will announce a serious endeavour to root out Al Qaeda in its country.
If my guess is correct, what will Bush do then? I don't think he can immediately backtrack on his anti-Saddam strategy. He will need to continue his invasion plans in order not to lose face but will probably confine himself to occupying the Shi'a Muslim part of southern Iraq, and supervise the holding of elections there and the inauguration of a provisional regional government. A lengthy occupation of southern Iraq might or might not have the effect of de-stabilising Saddam Hussein's regime (though this is probable over time, I suggest) but its primary purpose will be to act as a hostage in order to ensure that a new modernist government in Saudi Arabia continues to reform its own constitution -- and, at the very least, plans to hold democratic elections, institute human rights and reasonable standards of justice, and to allow a degree of autonomy to its own Shi'a minority. (And, of course, to continue with the major oil and gas projects with western oil companies that are now on the back burner!) To repeat: this is a speculation of mine but if a change in the SA regime doesn't happen tomorrow I'm not going to abandon my main hypothesis that the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld policy is far from being what it seems at present. Keith Hudson ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------- Keith Hudson,6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel:01225 312622/444881; Fax:01225 447727; E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________
