Keith,

Even as a left wing Quaker, I hope Bush does occupy southern Iraq.
Saddaam assassinated a personal friend of mine.

Bill Ward


On Tue, 10 Sep 2002 07:37:09 +0100 Keith Hudson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
writes:
> On the eve of September 11, I'm going to speculate about what Bush 
> may
> announce tomorrow. He needs something very special in order to 
> continue the
> momentum of his Middle East policy and revalidate himself 
> internationally.
> I think he may announce that there has been a serious change in the 
> Saudi
> Arabian government -- and that, among other things, the latter will
> announce a serious endeavour to root out Al Qaeda in its country.
> 
> If my guess is correct, what will Bush do then? I don't think he 
> can
> immediately backtrack on his anti-Saddam strategy. He will need to 
> continue
> his invasion plans in order not to lose face but will probably 
> confine
> himself to occupying the Shi'a Muslim part of southern Iraq, and 
> supervise
> the holding of elections there and the inauguration of a 
> provisional
> regional government.
> 
> A lengthy occupation of southern Iraq might or might not have the 
> effect of
> de-stabilising Saddam Hussein's regime (though this is probable over 
> time,
> I suggest) but its primary purpose will be to act as a hostage in 
> order to
> ensure that a new modernist government in Saudi Arabia continues to 
> reform
> its own constitution -- and, at the very least, plans to hold 
> democratic
> elections, institute human rights and reasonable standards of 
> justice, and
> to allow a degree of autonomy to its own Shi'a minority. (And, of 
> course,
> to continue with the major oil and gas projects with western oil 
> companies
> that are now on the back burner!)
> 
> To repeat: this is a speculation of mine but if a change in the SA 
> regime
> doesn't happen tomorrow I'm not going to abandon my main hypothesis 
> that
> the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld policy is far from being what it seems at 
> present.
> 
> Keith Hudson
>    
> 
>
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
---
> --------------
> 
> Keith Hudson,6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England
> Tel:01225 312622/444881; Fax:01225 447727; E-mail: 
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
________________________________________________________________________
> 
> 

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