John,
You say ...
"we can expect permafrost to release large quantities of methane, from
as early as 2011 onwards, which will lead inexorably to runaway
greenhouse warming and abrupt climate change."
This is guesswork, not science.
I do not want to sign this letter.
Tom.
+++++++++++++
John Nissen wrote:
In view of the situation in the Arctic, I would be grateful for support
for an open letter to John Holdren, along the following lines. Please
let me know whether you agree with this text and whether you'd be happy
for me to add your name at the bottom.
Cheers,
John
---
To John P Holdren, the Director of the Office of Science and Technology
Policy
Dear Dr Holdren,
The Arctic sea ice acts as a giant mirror to reflect sunlight back into
space and cool the Earth. The sea ice has been retreating far faster
than the IPCC predicted only three years ago [1]. But, after the record
retreat in September 2007, many scientists revised their predictions for
the date of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean from beyond the end of
century to beyond 2030. Only a few scientists predicted this event for
the coming decade, and they were ridiculed.
In 2008 and 2009 there was only a slight recovery in end-summer sea ice
extent, and it appears that the minimum 2010 extent will be close to a
new record [2]. However the evidence from PIOMAS is that there has been
a very sharp decline in volume [3], which is very worrying.
The Arctic warming is now accelerating, and we can expect permafrost to
release large quantities of methane, from as early as 2011 onwards,
which will lead inexorably to runaway greenhouse warming and abrupt
climate change. All this could become apparent if the sea ice retreats
further than ever before this summer. We could be approaching a point
of no return unless emergency action is taken.
We suggest that the current situation should be treated as a warning for
us all. The world community must rethink its attitude to fighting global
warming by cutting greenhouse gas emissions sharply. However, even if
emissions could be cut to zero, the existing CO2 in the atmosphere would
continue to warm the planet for many decades. Geoengineering now
appears the only means to cool the Arctic quickly enough. A
geoengineering project of the intensity of the Manhattan Project is
urgently needed to guard against a global catastrophe.
Yours sincerely,
John Nissen
[Other names to be added here.]
[1] Stroeve et al, May 2007
http://www.smithpa.demon.co.uk/GRL%20Arctic%20Ice.pdf
[2]
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
[3] http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100608_Figure5.png
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