Good observation otherwise, but the thinned ice breaks up and scatters more.
If you look at satellite pictures a few years ago the sea ice was not nearly as fluid as it is today. The North Pole sea ice is predominantly arranged such a way that some of the regular geometries resulting from the rotation are constantly almost always visible. In the past the rigid and thick multi year sea ice caused a lot more ridges and strengt variation within ice impeding a regular contraflows and centrifugal scattering of sea ice from the pole. In addition, the same laws of water displacement by floating ice become applicable. As much of the sea ice has been pushed towards perimetry of the Arctic Oceans coastal containment margin, the movement of ice towards equator from the pole requires displacement of the corresponding sea ice volume. So, if North Pole has 70-80 of sea ice, 20% of the surface water has been uplifted as the ice has been slinging towards perimeters. This kind of water upswell was irregularised "dissipated" by the ice ridges of pack ice, variable sea ice thickenesses randomising the effects. Withnessing patterns like cirles and ovals and spiralling ice galaxies do not increase my confidence that all is well as it used to... Some years ago the Arctic sea ice was so rigid that when Siberian rivers poured warm water into sea these weakened the sea ice from the estuary and the ice split all across the ocean to Canada. It was solid like the sement wall, not a fluid ice of today. I do not remember who called it the "rotten ice" on the Beaufort Sea last autumn, but that's it. Anyone who has been living in the Arctic knows that spring ice is thick but weak. The autumn ice is thin and strong. Between the two is the winter ice which Arctic used to be. Seeing the coriolis forces arranging highly regular patterns result from ice uniformity. Kr, Albert Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2010 13:13:16 -0400 Subject: Re: [geo] SEA ICE LOSS STUNS SCIENTISTS - open letter to John Holdren From: [email protected] To: [email protected] CC: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] The current extent of ice coverage is no different than it was 20 years ago: And, it appears to be tracking the 2006 decline, which makes sense as the wind patterns are about the same, and wind has far more to do with the extent of ice coverage than temperatures of the kind we have today. As I have written repeatedly, wait until the end of September and we will be able to argue from actual data on ice loss. These hysterics are getting in the way of actual observations - what some of us like to think is the baseline for science. d. On Sun, Jul 11, 2010 at 10:57 PM, Tom Wigley <[email protected]> wrote: John, You say ... "we can expect permafrost to release large quantities of methane, from as early as 2011 onwards, which will lead inexorably to runaway greenhouse warming and abrupt climate change." This is guesswork, not science. I do not want to sign this letter. Tom. +++++++++++++ John Nissen wrote: In view of the situation in the Arctic, I would be grateful for support for an open letter to John Holdren, along the following lines. Please let me know whether you agree with this text and whether you'd be happy for me to add your name at the bottom. Cheers, John --- To John P Holdren, the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy Dear Dr Holdren, The Arctic sea ice acts as a giant mirror to reflect sunlight back into space and cool the Earth. The sea ice has been retreating far faster than the IPCC predicted only three years ago [1]. But, after the record retreat in September 2007, many scientists revised their predictions for the date of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean from beyond the end of century to beyond 2030. Only a few scientists predicted this event for the coming decade, and they were ridiculed. In 2008 and 2009 there was only a slight recovery in end-summer sea ice extent, and it appears that the minimum 2010 extent will be close to a new record [2]. However the evidence from PIOMAS is that there has been a very sharp decline in volume [3], which is very worrying. The Arctic warming is now accelerating, and we can expect permafrost to release large quantities of methane, from as early as 2011 onwards, which will lead inexorably to runaway greenhouse warming and abrupt climate change. All this could become apparent if the sea ice retreats further than ever before this summer. We could be approaching a point of no return unless emergency action is taken. We suggest that the current situation should be treated as a warning for us all. The world community must rethink its attitude to fighting global warming by cutting greenhouse gas emissions sharply. However, even if emissions could be cut to zero, the existing CO2 in the atmosphere would continue to warm the planet for many decades. Geoengineering now appears the only means to cool the Arctic quickly enough. A geoengineering project of the intensity of the Manhattan Project is urgently needed to guard against a global catastrophe. Yours sincerely, John Nissen [Other names to be added here.] [1] Stroeve et al, May 2007 http://www.smithpa.demon.co.uk/GRL%20Arctic%20Ice.pdf [2] http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png [3] http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100608_Figure5.png -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. 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